- What will happen to the dollar according to Dal Poggetto?
The Minister of Economics, Luis Caputosaid that “A spectacular year 2026 is just around the corner“The announcement of Argentina’s return to the debt market with the new four-year dollar bond is the last bet.” Strengthening financial normalization This is sustainable economic growth.
The government’s desire to obtain one Debt restructuringand thus have the option of no longer making cash payments, says economist Marina Dal Poggetto, managing director of EcoGobelieves that the economic growth of the Argentine economy could be maintained for two consecutive years.
“The economy is expected to grow by over 4% this year. and it is likely that the statistical resistance remaining for next year will be above the zero value initially assumed,” he explained in dialogue with the program Hello China.
He clarified that for 3% growth it was necessary for economic activity to end the year at a significantly higher level than in the previous December. an end-to-end improvement of almost 5%. “What seemed very difficult is now less difficult,” he added.
Dal Poggetto explained that the sectors had the greatest impact on growth Energy and miningin addition to Financial systemwhich saw an increase due to the increase in available credit. He also pointed out that although the Cutting subsidies Although they had an impact on growth this year, he doesn’t believe they will play as important a role in 2026.
“It is likely that the economy will grow above 4% this year and it is likely that the statistical resistance remaining for next year will be above the zero value that it initially appeared.”
On the other hand, Construction and industry should “reactivate something” Next year. According to the economist, this is due to the possible reactivation of mortgage lending and public works, which have been practically zero this year. Services would also grow.
“If the openness to credit, which seems to be gaining momentum, continues, The economy will (probably) grow by around 2.5 to 3%.after a year in which it has probably grown to a little over four,” he explained.
What will happen to the dollar according to Dal Poggetto?
According to the economist, in a political context in which The opposition is “completely fragmented” and the ruling party achieved a positive prospect in Congress of being able to pass projects like this “Presumption of tax innocence” – or as the economist calls it “Permanent whitening“The government is expected to focus on attracting dollars into the system to maintain financial normalization and “accelerate the recirculation process” of currencies.
“The government’s signal is: ‘I don’t want to buy dollars through the checking account, I want to buy dollars for the capital accountand I will buy them to the extent that demand supports them.” And let the debt confirm it,” Dal Poggetto clarified. The goal is that “you can stop paying cash and start refinancing.”.
In this framework, the economist claimed that the exchange rate band system would be maintained, but with adjustments: This Top band remains tightwhile the The lower band, which is around $930, was no longer used as a referenceand is moving towards the $1400-$1450 zone where some dollars are already being bought.
In this context, according to Dal Poggetto, the government is trying to increase access to external credit to shorten maturities and avoid the use of reserves by combining new debt placements with REPO-like agreements with international banks.
The economist warned that the sustainability of the system will depend on this financing ability and the country’s risk response Exchange rate competitivenesshe emphasized, It does not appear on the official agenda.
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