Global stocks are falling early Tuesday morning as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of the release of the November U.S. employment (“payroll”) report at 10:30 a.m. If expectations for 50,000 job creations are disappointed and data points to a decline, the move could revive bets on another interest rate cut in January. In the local scenario, the market should react to the publication of the minutes of the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), against a backdrop of signs of slowdown in economic activity.
Around 8 a.m., S&P 500 futures were down 0.22%, while Nasdaq futures were down 0.34%. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 lost 0.08%, the DAX, in Germany, 0.32%, and the CAC 40, in Paris, advanced 0.07%. The DXY, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six strong currencies, lost 0.10%, to 98.216 points.
In the domestic market, investors are following new developments in the political council, with advances towards the race for Planalto in 2026. According to Folha de S.Paulo, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, plans to leave the Lula government in February and is preparing the executive secretary, Dario Durigan, to take this post.
The budgetary agenda should also return to the center of investors’ concerns, after the House approved this Monday the complementary bill which modifies the fiscal framework and authorizes additional spending on health and education. The text, written by the leader of the MDB, MP Isnaldo Bulhões (AL), has already been adopted by the Senate and is now in the process of being sanctioned by the president.
While monetary policy is the focus of local markets, IBC-Br figures, which showed a 0.25% decline in October compared to September, yesterday led to the decline in future interest rates, reinforcing the perception of a loss of momentum in economic activity, which once again presented January as a possibility for the start of the monetary easing cycle. The exchange rate had a volatile day, after falling at the start of the session. At the end of the activity, the commercial dollar appreciated by 0.23%, quoted at R$5.4228.
The movement also increased the gains of the Ibovespa, which returned to the level of 162 thousand points and gained momentum to face Wall Street. In New York, the main indices ended lower, under pressure from technology stocks and falling trading volume.
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