The global economy is in a phase of high volatility and numerous open fronts. For the economist Martin Simonettain dialogue with Channel EThe coming year will be marked by geopolitical tensions and a realignment of international power. “We have a year marked by Donald Trump’s actions in the United States, but in a world that is no longer unipolar” he noted, adding: “China is questioning its leadership role and Russia is also questioning the balance in the Eurasian zone“.
The economist emphasized that Latin America does not have a homogeneous situation either. “We see that Argentina and now Chile are allied with the United States, but not all of Latin America is allied with Trump’s United States“, he explained, mentioning the role of Brazil and the still latent conflicts in countries such as Venezuela, Cuba and Colombia.”There are many open scenarios and great uncertainty for the coming year“, he summarized.
Commodities, trade and external pressures
Simonetta warned that Argentina was exposed to several external factors that were difficult to control. “We are sitting on a lot of global instability today“, he explained, citing the price of raw materials and the destination of exports as the main risks.”We have to see whether the markets open or close for Argentina“, he remarked.
He also focused on international trade and Chinese competition. “If China can’t get its products into the US, it will continue to spread them around the world.“, he explained, linking this phenomenon to the growing presence of Chinese products in local markets through digital platforms.
The agreement between Mercosur and the European Union is questionable
One of the central points of the analysis was the future of the agreement between Mercosur and the European Union. “A month and a half ago we assumed it would be signed, but there were big surprises“, held Simonetta. As he explained, opposition from countries such as France, Italy, Hungary and Ireland had slowed the treaty’s progress. “There is enormous uncertainty regarding the definition of this agreement“, he explained.
The economist recalled that this was a strategic agreement. “It would be the agreement involving the largest population in the world, more than 600 million people“, he stressed. However, he warned that the European interior will be crucial: “In particular, because of the lack of competitiveness in the agricultural sector, as in the case of France, if they cannot sign it, they will not sign it“.
In this context Simonetta He concluded with a clear warning: “It really is a world of questions“, where Argentina must carefully adapt to a changing international scenario.
About The Author
