The new electoral cycle, the most decisive in almost 50 years of Spanish democracy, was inaugurated this Sunday with the regional elections in Extremadura. And the result was devastating for the PSOE, which Pedro Sanchez led to the worst results in its history in the region.
The Extremadura elections constituted the first test in the elections for the PSOE after the avalanche of corruption scandals and cases of sexual harassment and the chronicization of the legislative blockade. And the verdict could not be stronger: the PSOE lost 8 seats and 14 points.
The PP, for its part, goes from 28 to 29 deputies. It cannot be excluded that this lower-than-expected increase could be influenced by a poor marketing campaign. Maria Guardiolawho was wrong not to grant interviews until the home stretch, to absent himself from the electoral debate and to insist on the alleged theft of votes at the Post Office.
It is nevertheless misleading to claim, as Miguel Ángel Gallardo used as a parapet, that the elections were of no use because Guardiola only won one seat.
Because we cannot ignore that the PP has progressed by 4 points, remaining close to the best historical result of the PP in the region, that of Monago in 2011.
What does not allow for nuance is the disaster of the PSOEon what has historically been the socialist place par excellence.
The PSOE has never fallen below 40% of the vote, it has only lost one of the eleven elections held so far (those of 2011) and it has governed 36 of the last 42 years, with 7 absolute majorities included.
But, in just two years, the PSOE went from almost 40% of the vote to 25%, and lost almost half of his votes.
In any case, the result allows the PSOE to cling to the consolation that Vox exploded, and thus to be able to continue exploiting its discourse against the far right.
And it is true that Vox grew even more than expected, occupying all 11 seats and experiencing the biggest increase of the evening.
As it must also be recognized that the relative weight of Vox has increased, which means that, After tonight, he is stronger to negotiate with Guardiola.
But the PSOE could have seemed convincing if the PP had remained as it is. On the contrary, Guardiola collected more seats than the entire left combined. Which means that, at least to be inaugurated as president of the Junta de Extremadura, she only needs the abstention of Vox.
The PSOE now only has to try to worry the PP by encouraging the scenario that, in legislative elections, Feijóo could find himself once again on the verge of governing because he is unable to free himself from his dependence on the PP. Santiago Abascal.
But if these elections have shown anything, it is the error of Sánchez’s strategy promote Vox to divide the right-wing vote and, by radicalizing its discourse, fish for votes to its left.
Because, firstly, it has been proven that even if Vox grows, this does not prevent the PP from winning and governing. In this sense, the distance between the PP and the PSOE is eloquent, it is greater than that between the PSOE and Vox.
And secondly, because it seems that the ultra-left is starting to recover some of the votes. borrowed to the PSOE, as evidenced by the significant increase also experienced by Unidas por Extremadura, which gained 3 seats.
While waiting for the vote transfer data, it is possible to think that the rest of the collapse of the PSOE (in addition to what could have been the abstention of sanction) is explained by the transfusion towards a PP which developed in the center. But obviously There must also have been a notable transfer of rural votes from the PSOE to a Vox. which already repeats a workerist speech.
With these wickers, the sociological shift of Extremadura towards the right is consolidated. It is unusual that the conservative bloc won 60% of the vote for the first time in a secular, socialist community.
The historical character of this turning point is only comparable to that of Andalusia. Which indicates that by turning to the Basque-Catalan electoral register, the PSOE lost the south, and with it a pillar of its political identity.
It is certain that the feeling of resentment against the privileges of nationalism, which Sánchez has multiplied, will have influenced the direction of the vote of many Extremadurans. Ironically, Sánchez is on track to make Spain a sociologically center-right countrywhich was unlikely ten years ago.
So, not only the Gallardo effectthe least competitive candidate possible, who should have resigned this evening.
What was observed is also and above all the Sanchez effectwho was not content with having challenged the society of Extremadura by presenting (in an unprecedented gesture) a person investigated for socket to his brother, redoubled his audacity by taking center stage in the campaign and presenting his candidate as the victim of a campaign of hoaxes.
These elections allowed us to taste the toxic impact of Sánchez’s Caesarist leadership.which resulted in the dismasting of strong baronies like that of Extremadura, cradle of references like Rodriguez Ibarra either Fernández Vara.
There, the PSOE is ready for Sánchez, in his agony, to continue to liquidate the party.
If Sunday’s elections end up being a snapshot of voting behavior across Spain, Pedro Sánchez’s balance at the helm of the PSOE will have been the blow to getting a stronger PP to govern alone while Vox soars.
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