Are Venezuela’s strongman Nicolás Maduro’s days numbered? After US soldiers hijacked an oil tanker off the coast of the Caribbean country, the political situation became increasingly tense. And it’s not just the USA that is targeting Venezuela, which has the largest oil reserves in the world, China is also playing its cards.
“Whoever comes to power in Caracas, I am sure that the first call will be Trump and the second will be Xi Jinping,” said Parsifal D’Sola Alvarado, an expert on Sino-Latin American relations.
Alvarado is director of the Andrés Bello Foundation, a Chinese Latin American research center with offices in Bogotá and Madrid. He was part of the team of Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó and was responsible for relations with Beijing.
“China doesn’t want problems with the USA”
In an interview with DW, Alvarado doubts that Beijing will defend Venezuela in the face of possible US intervention. “There will only be diplomatic and political support,” he claims.
“It seems to me very unlikely that China will actively support Maduro, sell weapons or make new major investments. China does not want any further conflicts with the USA.”
Currently, China is the largest buyer of Venezuelan oil. According to an analysis by the US Energy Agency (EIA), about two-thirds of Venezuela’s crude oil exports went to China in 2023. 23 percent was destined for the United States.
US sanctions hit the oil industry
Before the Trump administration imposed sanctions on state oil company PDVSA in 2019 and blocked Venezuela’s access to the US financial market in 2017, the US was the main buyer of its oil. Afterwards, both production and exports collapsed.
According to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), crude oil exports fell to almost 500,000 barrels per day in 2021. However, the downward trend had started much earlier. After reaching a maximum of almost two million barrels in 2015 (see graphic), production fell steadily. Mismanagement, corruption and a lack of investment in the oil sector led to the industry’s continuous decline over the years.
Is Chevron “saving” the Venezuelan economy?
A slight recovery will only be observed from 2023. In 2024, exports reached 655,000 barrels per day and in November of the same year they reached 921,000. Paradoxically, it was not China but the United States that made this boom possible. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Washington eased sanctions against Venezuela several times.
In November 2022, the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) granted US oil company Chevron special licenses to resume crude oil exports from its joint ventures in Venezuela. In October 2025, Chevron also received a new permit to produce oil in the country.
“The increase in oil production in Venezuela is due to Chevron,” Francisco J. Monaldi, an expert on Latin American energy policy at the Baker Institute at Rice University in Houston, told DW. Chevron’s operations now account for nearly a quarter of Venezuela’s oil production.
Unlike Chevron, Chinese investments are currently limited to certain private initiatives. The Chinese company Concord Resources Corp has started developing two oil fields in Venezuela. According to agency reports, the project envisages investments of more than $1 billion to produce up to 60,000 barrels per day by the end of 2026.
There is no more fresh money coming from Beijing
According to a report by the Global Development Policy Center, Chinese state-owned banks such as China Development Bank and Exim Bank have not issued new loans to Caracas since 2016.
Without loans, without government investments, with subordinate diplomatic relations and contacts with the opposition – for Parsifal D’Sola Alvarado, these are clear signs that Beijing does not support Maduro unconditionally. According to reports, China was already criticizing the non-transparent use of its loans in 2011 when eight billion dollars suddenly disappeared. “The Chinese authorities were very disappointed by the level of corruption and waste,” says Alvarado.
Sanctions as the “final nail in the coffin”
In his opinion, it was not primarily US sanctions that caused China to withdraw from Venezuela. “The sanctions were just another nail in the coffin.”
For this reason, he estimates that a possible regime change in Caracas would hardly change anything economically for China. “I don’t see any major economic losses,” emphasizes Alvarado. What would change would be the geopolitical influence. “After a regime change, Beijing would no longer have access to the leadership of Venezuelan power or its networks.”
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