According to the Market Expectations Survey published by the BCRA and the forecasts of the country’s main economic advisers, inflation would have been between 2.3% and 2.5% in November 2025. Food, prices and transport would have stimulated inflation again and prevented the CPI from consolidating the downward process Governmentwhat pis expected to be 1% this half of the year. This afternoon at 4 p.m. INDEC will release the official data.
Inflation in the city of Buenos Aires rose to 2.4% in November and is now at 28.3%.
Inflation continues to weaken, but without breaking through the 2% lower limit that has been consolidated since September. Already in the first week of December, several analysts warned of sharp price increases – especially for food – in the last month of the year, as in the economist’s case Orlando Ferreres who stated that in the In the first week of December, inflation accelerated to 1.7% and threatens to reach a new acceleration at the end.
With these forecasts, Ferreres assumes in journalistic statements that the year 2025 will end with an increase in the cost of living of around 30%.
EcoGo, for its part, recorded a 0.4% increase in groceries in the first week of the month, a slowdown of 0.5 points compared to the previous week.
“With this result, inflation of food consumed at home would reach 2.2% in December. Taking into account the observed fluctuation in food consumed away from home (2.0%), the general food indicator is 2.1%,” stated the consulting firm he heads. Marina Dal Poggetto.
The preliminary report said: “General inflation is forecast to be around 2.3% per month in December.”
First, the data for November 2025: the BCRA REM forecasts
Private showings are based on the Survey of market expectations (REM) the central bank that provides 2.3% for the month and estimates that year-on-year inflation will end 2025 around 30.4%.
What the consultants estimated about the CPI in November
balance quantified November inflation 2.5%driven by increases in
Housing, water, electricity and other fuels (3.4%),
transport (3.4%),
communication (3.1%),
Food and non-alcoholic drinks (2.8%).
The consulting firm also planned a annual fluctuation of 31%and emphasized that the recomposition of regulated prices and the update of tariffs again had an impact on the overall index.
On his part EcoGo also estimated inflation of 2.5%with a strong nutritional component. The average variation of the item reached 3%driven primarily by meat (+5.8%) and fruit (+18.7%) in the first weeks of the month. “November was a month of normalization but also corrections, which contributed to inflation continuing to rise,” the report highlighted.
Orlando Ferreres announced that “the year would end with inflation of 30% between January and December.”
Of the Foundation for Freedom and Progress They predicted inflation of 23%with a cumulative 27.7% so far this year and an interannual rate of 31.2%. According to the Foundation’s economic team, “these tenths above the 2% that we have seen since September are largely due to the devaluation of the peso since the middle of the year, which will continue to have an impact in the coming months.”
The advisor C&T measured a monthly increase of 2.4% in the greater Buenos Aires area, driven by three factors:
The increase in meat consumption, which accelerated since October, led to an increase in the category of foods eaten at home 2.6%,
The discounts from Cyber Mondaywhich moderated the prices of household appliances in the first week,
The increases in regulated services such as transport, electricity and gas, which recorded higher increases than in previous months.
C&T’s estimated interannual variation was slightly reduced to 29.1%deepening the slowdown trend.
The Progress: Inflation in CABA
As a prelude to the national data, the Inflation in the city of Buenos Aires climbed onto the 2.4% in Novemberaccording to the IPCBA published by the Buenos Aires Statistics Institute (IDECBA). In the first eleven months of the year, prices in CABA accumulated by an increase of 28.3%while the interannual variation was 32.6%one point below October.
Private parties estimate that inflation was above 2% in November 2025: when would it break this ceiling?
The elements that explained more of it 70% of the monthly increase was:
– housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels,
– food and non-alcoholic drinks,
– transportation,
– restaurants and hotels,
– Recreation and culture.
The dynamics of Buenos Aires usually anticipate some of the national behavior, Therefore, the 2.4% reading reinforced expectations of a CPI at the level expected by the market.
What is the government looking at?
With inflation having stabilized at around 2% monthly but with no signs of a sharper decline, the economics team is carefully monitoring the development of three key variables in December and January:
– regulated prices,
– fresh food (meat and fruit),
– Transport and energy tariffs.
Meanwhile, the market expects INDEC data to confirm a third straight month of records above 2%, amid a stable dollar, under-pressure wages and still moderate consumption.
About The Author
