summer Mortgage credit It was over faster than it started. After months in which the UVA initiative reignited expectations and supported falling property prices, November saw a break: they cashed US$180 million, the lowest figure this year And a A decrease of 51% compared to October (which was 372 million US dollars)
It is a setback that not only limits the rise in prices in recent months, but also returns the market to levels similar to November of last year. The strike was not simple, but revealed something that was expected: Without reasonable rates, the mortgage boom will not be able to continue. This indicates that, Reaching your home in Argentina remains a difficult goal.
the reason? Despite expectations of a decline in interest rates after the October election results, Reality showed more increases than declines. The notable decline in credit reflects the impact of tightening conditions in recent months, which has dampened demand.
September and October were positive months in operations due to the previous behavior: rush to Appropriations close before the election. This motive no longer exists, that much is clear. Added to this other information: Some entities reduced the offer significantlyTo the point where its lines stopped, as happened with Banco Ciudad.
In addition, entities such as Banco Municipal de Rosario eliminated the preferential interest rate, leaving it at 4.2% (previously 3%), while Probank raised the interest rate from 10% to 12%. Even Banco Nación increased the size of its stake from 4.5% to 6%, although it is still the most competitive. While other private banks retain interest of more than 10%. This dynamic, in addition to the lack of bank liquidity needed for long-term loans, constitutes a major obstacle. “When there is liquidity, prices will fall“, I refer to market sources.
Federico Gonzalez Rocco, an economist who closely follows the development of mortgage credit and the housing market, summarizes:We enter into a pause process. Until the prices are rearranged. With existing wallets, the rigidity of the wallets was exhausted and the market began to depend on Banco Nación.
November also shows a certain phenomenon: The average agreed rate was 5.9%.This is the lowest level since April. This number can only be explained by the greater participation on one side Nation BankWhich supports the market today. However, the medium range continues to expand: 25.2 yearsa way to reduce the initial fees to make the process viable.
The credit brakes are becoming increasingly apparent. In the last three months, publishing prices in the city of Buenos Aires have risen from the map with 90% of neighborhoods suffer from high prices Divided into one: Only 50% continue to rise and The remaining 40% show low levelsaccording to the latest Zonaprop report.
To show the discrepancy resulting from the electoral impact, González Roco captures the situation in the week before the election: “At that time, $148,000 million in mortgage loans were made from UVA. This represented a huge avalanche of people who wanted to close operations. At the same time, after the election, the amount dropped to $56,000 million, and in November the pace was lower.”
According to various analysts, the market is thus entering phase Stop. The collapse is not expected, however Change in grant. Whether the market moves again will depend exclusively on improving macroeconomics, improving salaries, and mortgage lines with better conditions. Since rates are higher than 12%, fewer people can get credit to buy their homes.