The action of Loma Negra (LOMA) returned to the center of conversation in the city. Not so much because of a particular novelty, but because of a combination that usually sparks the debate after a quarterly report with a bittersweet aftertaste, a sector that is beginning to indicate a bottom and a price that no longer looks cheap. With the closure $3,895, The market is forced to recalculate: Is there still a long way to go or has the paper already gone too far?
The question now rests on two axes. On the one hand, the basics of the company and its operational and financial organizational processes. On the other hand, a valuation that reflects a good part of the recovery scenario expected for 2026.
Balance sheet for the quarter
He third quarter of 2025 has left mixed signals, according to recent reports from Research for dealers and from Allaria. Loma Negra ended the period with one Net loss of $8,468 millioncompared to a profit of $28,266 million in the same quarter of 2024. The explanation was not in the central operation but in the impact of the financial front, which once again worked against us.
Operationally, the company demonstrated greater stability. Sales achieved $209,272 millionwith a decline of 12% year-on-year, reflecting a 5% drop in deliveries and prices that barely grew in line with inflation. The traded volume was 1.37 million tons, while the average price per ton increased by 5.7% compared to the previous quarter.
The main pressure point was once again on the cost side. He Cost per ton rose by 10% and was therefore well above the price adjustment that resulted in a Gross margin compression of more than 300 basis points, up to 17.3%.
Nevertheless, it is adjusted EBITDA remained at an appropriate level, with $43,534 million and a margin of 20.8%, just below the previous year. The message was clear: the business is not disarming itself, but remains very sensitive to deviations in costs or volumes.
The most unpleasant point
The trickiest part of the balance sheet was once again the financial one. In the quarter, the financial result showed a Loss of $28,733 millionwhen it reported a profit of $16.6 billion a year ago. The deterioration was due to lower results due to currency risk and higher losses due to exchange rate differences.
This aspect does not play a minor role when considering the market. Although cement is a relatively defensive business, the impact of macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate, interest rates and accounting inflation continue to weigh on the bottom line. And when that happens, the stock typically pays a higher risk premium.
Offices and construction
At the sector level, the market is seeing the first signs of stabilization. After the sharp adjustment in 2024, cement shipments showed a decline in recent months positive interannual fluctuations close to 7%with sequential improvements suggesting that the activity floor would have been left behind.
However, the recovery is far from complete. Public construction work remains at a low level and private construction is progressing cautiously due to still high real interest rates and still limited access to credit. The consensus is that the recovery exists, but it is there gradual and fragile.
In this context, the projections point to a Moderate shipping increase in 2025 and a slightly more visible improvement only in 2026, if the macro scenario supports it.
The bet to go through the cycle
With demand still weak, Loma Negra focused on efficiency. By reducing operating expenses and maintaining cost discipline, the impact of the decline in earnings was cushioned and appropriate operating margins were maintained.
The financial system also plays a role. The company has manageable debt ratios and a relationship Net debt/EBITDA close to 0.9xand expectations for future improvements. This gives you room to move through the cycle smoothly and recover with a more solid balance sheet.
The change in stock control reinforced this perception. The entry of a new reference shareholder with experience in the infrastructure and energy business was interpreted by the market as a factor of greater predictability and discipline, without however changing the cyclical nature of the business.
Valuation: What changes with LOMA at $3,895?
When the stock closed at $3,895, the discussion died down. The target price of $4,260 per share, with a horizon of the end of 2026, implied from these levels a Upside potential of almost 9%, plus a estimated dividend yield of 2.8%.
In practice, the potential total return is approx 12% in pesosassuming that the scenario projected by Allaria comes true. While that’s not a negligible number, it’s significantly lower than what the stock offered when it was trading in the $3,300 or $3,400 range.
For this reason, the error rate is reduced. With metrics that already reflect part of the recovery – EV/EBITDA and P/E above the regional average -, The market is beginning to demand that expected improvements be confirmed in the coming quarters.
Definitions section.
From a technical perspective, the paper also shows signs of caution. Loma Negra’s ADR is on the back of a very significant increase from year-to-date lows and is hovering near relevant resistance zones. Some short-term indicators suggest overbought, increasing the likelihood of breaks or corrections if new catalysts do not emerge.
This doesn’t invalidate the background scenario, but it does reinforce the idea that trading at these prices is less obvious than it was months ago.
Buy, hold or sell: the city’s verdict
With LOMA for $3,895the consensus begins to become clearer:
- Buy: Option reserved for Long-term profileswho are counting on a stronger recovery in the construction sector in 2026.
- Hold: dominant posture. The advantage is there, but it is limited and requires patience.
- Sell: valid alternative for those who got in at much lower prices and They are looking to turn a profit after rising more than 35% for the year.
Despite all this, Loma Negra is no longer cheap, but in absolute terms it doesn’t look expensive either.
The stock entered a balance zone, What matters is no longer the initial recovery, but the ability of the economy and the construction sector to sustain the recovery over time.
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