Opposition dilemmas Introductory account

Polarization, fragmentation, and lack of political representation are an algorithm that is difficult for the opposition to solve. He wonders what must be done to become a political alternative.

Electoral reality tells us that the number of opponents to the government is greater than the number of those loyal to it. If we look at the October results, we find that 40% of society today finds a spokesperson while the remaining 60% do not have a spokesperson. The 31% that we get from adding all the Peronist slogans seems illusory since they do not express a common policy. It can be said that all those who voted for Peronist candidates did so against the national government, and that governors and deputies who open up to the Union for the Fatherland bloc are betraying them. But just as there were provinces whose governors were completely opposed to the Milisme, victory was achieved in other provinces thanks to the fact that, despite the difference, the governor maintained an open dialogue with Casa Rosada.

Then we have roughly 7% of the United Provinces vote who identify as opposition but are also anti-Kirchner. We have 4 points of left-wing votes that will definitely vote in the second round for Peronist candidates and 18 points distributed among the heterogeneous political forces.

To this fragmentation we must add an 8-point decline in historical attendance in the midterm elections, which averaged 76% between 2005 and 2017. The percentage of 68% this year is considered the lowest since the restoration of democracy in this type of election.

Let us now look a little inside the main opposition force. Everything is tension and mystery. On the one hand, we have Kirchnerism that is increasingly being questioned by the political leadership, but with Cristina Kirchner still scoring 40 points of positive image and still having loyal leaders in the House and Senate. On the other hand, Kiselov is shown trying to distinguish himself from Christina, but still unable to do so. Perhaps now that he has the religion, he will try to deepen the distance.

There is another pole of power in the governors of the Interior, but it is much weaker and limited in the possibility of confrontation due to the lack of economic resources. As well as the leaders of the Interior Ministry who spoke frankly about Kirchnerism. For now, Saenz says, the interior governors want to talk, waiting for the coat to appear. If he doesn’t show up, will they confront him? Another important leader is Sergio Massa, who at this point depends on how the fight within Justice is resolved. All this power seems to be reflected in the abundance of legislative blocs.

The potential deterioration of the government does not appear to be sufficient for the opposition to be a political alternative.

It seems that the flags of production and labor generation with an active state contributing to economic development is a factor that can generate a common program within and outside Peronism. But this requires the emergence of leadership that does not bring up the mistakes of the past.

There is also another factor that complicates the situation. The New Geopolitical Framework Macri failed in his government despite having the support of the International Monetary Fund, and Miley received the same level of approval from the administration. He also had the support of the International Monetary Fund but joined forces with Trump. This raises questions among the opposition about whether it should be in a strong confrontation with all of Milley’s policies and also with Trump, or should it build an alternative force that confronts extreme liberal policies, and assumes economic banners that support national development but builds bridges with Washington as long as the Republicans remain in power. It is no coincidence that many are paying attention to what is happening in the upcoming midterm elections in the Nordic country.

*Political consultant and analyst.