The economist, Orlando Ferreresin dialogue with Canal E, highlighted the slowdown in inflation, the impact of the exchange rate band system and the central bank’s difficulties in building up reserves.
Regarding the November inflation data in the city of Buenos Aires, Orlando Ferreres announced that his consulting firm forecasts a very similar figure for the national data. “We expect 2.3%, there could also be a little more, but the last week has seen an acceleration in prices“, he explained.
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He also noted that December comes with a higher floor: “The first week of December gave us a pretty strong increase of 1.7% in the first weekwhich is pretty high.” With this dynamic, he claimed, “the year would end.” at 30% inflation between January and December.”
For next year, Ferreres expected a more favorable scenario, although far from complete stability. “For next year, 2026, We expect an increase of 14% between January and December next yearthat is, lower, but always higher than 1%,” he indicated.
Changes in consumption within households
There were changes in household behavior when it came to consumption: “Drinks went down, from 13 to 10.8%. “The same thing fell in the warehouse and also in electronics,” according to data from 20 supermarket chains.
The country risk remains at around 630 points and for the respondent the explanation is clear: “Basically it is a fact do not have many reservesthe fact that there are few reserves and unable to fulfill obligations except for new loans.”
He then explained that the exchange rate also played a role: “Theoretical equilibrium parity with the United States.” It is at $1,740 per dollarand the official exchange rate is 1,470.” This reduces the scope for accumulating foreign currency: “The percentage that had to be devalued also leads to slightly higher inflation, and then this exchange rate.” It would have to be higher to be able to buy reserves“.
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