Outlook for 2026 – Infobae

Expectations for next year are encouraging in terms of activity and inflation, while a remonetization process can certainly be expected. The not so easy challenge is that Government Start building reserves through market purchases.

He index has published the data EMAE that is approaching the development of GDP monthly. Despite the financial turmoil that hit the economy from the middle of the year, economic performance was good, although with large differences between sectors.

If you analyze the numbers adjusted for seasonal effects, the result is: EMAE September 2025 was 5% higher than November 2023, the last full month of the previous administration. However, industrial activity was 4.4% below its then level and construction activity was 20% lower. Comparing the data from last September with the same month of 2023 – to avoid a seasonal correction and also to have a longer perspective – shows that there are sectors with strong growth in these two years (agriculture and livestock, fishing, mining and energy, hotels and restaurants and financial intermediation), others with significant declines (industry, trade, construction and electricity, gas and water) and the rest of services with minor changes. positive or negative.

In short, a more than adequate performance for an economy that suffered a deep fiscal correction in the first year of the current administration and a severe monetary and credit restriction in the current year, especially from mid-July.

If a budget for 2026 is approved in line with the project of the Executive powerwhich aims to achieve the same primary surplus as in 2025, a relevant direct influence of fiscal policy on activity levels in the coming year was not expected. On the other hand, the rapid normalization of financial variables after the October 26 election should help improve economic performance in the future. The projections of FAITHFUL For next year they expect growth of just over 3%, slightly more optimistic than the analyst average.

After the recovery observed in recent months, inflation is expected to return to a downward trend next year. It is important to continue to make gradual progress, even if the final data is slightly higher than that forecast by the national government. In this context, the estimate of FAITHFUL The inflation rate for 2026 is 19 percent.

At the same time, a remonetization of the economy in pesos is to be expected. This conclusion can be drawn from the historical analysis of the demand for money for transactions in periods of low inflation and, moreover, after the high dollarization decided by economic actors in the run-up to the midterm elections.

This would provide enormous scope for free issuance of money that could be used to build reserves in the country BCRA or to reduce the weight of national debt in local currency. Despite the favorable scenario that emerged after the election, there are always risks and therefore it seems advisable to strengthen the effectiveness of the monetary authority with its own resources, complementing what has been achieved through swaps.

External risks include a change in government support. USA (which seems unlikely) or a reduction in international oil prices, which is very likely to occur when analyzing the reports of international experts on the subject. In the Argentina The risk of drought is always present, but seems unlikely given climate forecasts and the current state of soils. An increase in the American interest rate or a strengthening of the dollar against other currencies also seems unlikely, as it appears that a decision has been made to tolerate a little more inflation in order to cope with the growing burden of the American national debt.

Since the weight is floating near the top of the belt, the question is whether there is room for it BCRA Buy reservations. Should there be an increase in demand for pesos, this would theoretically lead to upward pressure on the dollar and the currency. BCRA I could buy by issuing pesos to avoid this. But when you’re working so close to the band’s ceiling, any event can disrupt the process and lower expectations.

Taking advantage of the financial calm after the election, it should be analyzed whether a correction in the fluctuation range is necessary. The transition to a free float (which the government itself has postponed until 2028) poses risks if the country does not have its own international reserves. Therefore, it appears that if there are any changes, they will be within the limits of the range. The floor has become irrelevant and increasing it should not cause complications. A change in this sense would give a clearer signal about what level the BCRA yes or yes, I would buy.

However, the roof modification looks more complex. If the monthly depreciation rate is changed, it may negatively affect interest rates in pesos and/or the inflation rate. A one-off increase would limit the negative impact on interest rates, but could raise expectations that the cap will not be met in the future.

But beyond the difficulty, it is important that a process of accumulating reserves through market purchases begins when the government appears to be enjoying its best economic moment in months.

The author is director and chief economist of FIEL. This note was published in FIEL’s Economic Indicators 681