The coming January 9th marks a key point for Argentine economic policy. A payment of $4.2 billion is due that day, the economist explained Pablo Das Nevesin dialogue with Channel E“The dollars are not there today, there is still a shortage“, although he clarified that “This does not mean that there should be panic in the market.In fact, he highlighted that “bonds due January 9 are trading higher, with a slight decline in sovereign risk,” a sign of relative confidence from investors.
The economist stressed that the government has financing alternatives, but January poses several simultaneous risks. “A government credibility test will take place in January“, he explained, not only for the settlement of the debts, but also for the possible outflow of capital related to money laundering. In this sense, he recalled that “There is a risk of an outflow of around $23 billion“, funds available for withdrawal from the system since January 1st.
The Tax Innocence Law and the Bet on Dollars
When asked about the tax innocence law: The Neves He explained that the government was aiming to remonetize the economy. “This economic model is based on a permanent supply of dollars“, he claimed, adding that the rule was “a form of money laundering with some restrictions” since “It is not money laundering per se.” and the Treasury Department can investigate the origin of the funds.
Nevertheless, the economist was moderately optimistic about the behavior of the capital that had already been received. “I believe that many of these 23 billion will remain in the system“, he noted, due to the financial alternatives available, such as tradable bonds of leading companies and bonds that continue to offer attractive returns.
The problem is the financing costs, he warned. “Many of these alternatives are expensive” he said, remembering the recent high emissions. Therefore, he expected “Very good handling of the box” and possible regulatory changes to encourage the dollar to stay in the system without sacrificing reserves.
IMF, reserves and credibility on a tightrope
The relationship with the IMF is another delicate matter. The Neves It was haunting: “Argentina thrives on renunciation and does not achieve its goals“Especially in terms of reserve accumulation. As he explained, the organization and the United States are already exerting pressure to correct the current system.”The fund doesn’t like that cheap dollar anymore“, he explained.
He also questioned a complete removal of stocks in the short term. “I would be surprised if it happened and it would be quite dangerous“, he warned. For the economist, trust is the central challenge: “The market is primarily based on expectations and credibility“And although Argentina has better fundamentals than other countries, “Credibility is built“.
Looking ahead to January, The Neves He concluded: “Let’s see if it really responds to the marketsHe believes the government will do this, even if it is not yet known “what the costs will be and what instrument they will use” in a crucial month for the economic direction of 2026.
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