JP Morgan’s report on the new global economic order represents a profound break with traditional models. As explained Pablo Ferrarithese are no longer classic schemes or predictable economic curves. “You won’t see classic economic models or Cartesian plans” he noted, adding that the central axis runs through technology.”What will distinguish productivity and technology leadership is artificial intelligence“, he stated emphatically.
For the economist, AI acts as a transversal factor that determines the rest of the activities. “Those who make progress in this area will lead many other areas.” he said, marking a clear difference between the countries that have mastered this technology and those that are lagging behind.
Artificial intelligence, critical minerals and energy
Ferrari stated that technology leadership cannot be maintained without strategic resources. “The other two key topics are critical minerals, rare earths and, above all, energy” he remarked. At this point he drew a historical parallel: “This is reminiscent of the Paley Report from the mid-20th century in the United States.“, as this country recognized the need to look outside its territory for resources to sustain its growth.
Far from conspiracy theories, Ferrari It was haunting: “What you say is accurate and also clear, there is no need to think about conspiraciesHe cited American foreign policy as an example: “Trump explains that this oil belongs to the United States and that there are also rare earths there“he said in reference to Venezuela.
Global Fragmentation, Gold and Impact in Argentina
The economist placed the collapse of the world order in a more recent process. “Since February 2022, we have begun to observe a fragmentation, a decoupling of the world order“, he explained, leading to value chain security being prioritized over cost reduction.”This tends towards regionalization“, he added.
In this context Ferrari He noted that the United States is increasing its influence in Latin America. “In his security report he specifically emphasized the need to expand the Monroe Doctrine“he explained, linking this approach to the Argentine case.”Argentina would give priority to public tenders related to energy and rare earths“, he indicated, in line with US policy.
Finally, he emphasized the role of gold as a safe haven. “Gold is gold: one is the dollar, the other is the yuan or the euro“, he emphasized. According to Ferrari “Today it is back at around $4,300 or $4,500 per ounce, a record“, although he warned that “what could benefit Argentina will remain in hands that are not Argentine.”
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