Senator Renan Calheiros (MDB-AL) and federal deputy Arthur Lira (PP-AL) appear in the lead in all contest scenarios, in Alagoas, for the two Senate seats in the 2026 elections, according to data from the Paraná Research Institute published this Thursday (11/12).
The survey polled 2,005 voters in 64 municipalities of Alagoas, between December 4 and 8, 2025. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points, plus or minus, with a confidence level of 95%.
In the simulations carried out by the institute, each respondent could nominate up to two candidates. In each of them, Renan Calheiros appears first, followed by Lira.
In the most complete scenario, which brings together all the pre-candidates listed for the Senate, Renan records 39.2%, while Lira appears with 35.7% of voting intentions. In third position is Marina Candia (PL), wife of the mayor of Maceió, João Henrique Caldas, of the JHC (PL). She recorded 30.8%.
Next comes Alfredo Gaspar (União Brasil) with 27.5%; Davi Filho (PP), who recorded 20.9%; Paulão (PT), with 12.7%; and Ítalo Bonja (PRTB) finishing with 2.3%. Check it out:
In total, 3.8% of those questioned were unable to respond or preferred not to give their opinion, while 5.8% declared a blank vote, void or for none of the candidates.
The Institute also tested three other conflict scenarios, all of which kept Renan and Lira in the top two positions. Check it out below:
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