The government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) is planning tough elections in 2026. Although the PT member is expected to be re-elected, aides say the election is likely to repeat the environment of strong polarization that has marked Brazilian politics in recent years.
According to the interlocutors, the internal diagnosis is that, despite the number of government deliveries considered positive, the concrete results are not enough to guarantee victory in an environment marked by symbolic and ideological conflicts. It is also necessary to challenge narratives and values.
Background polarization
- On October 4, 2026, Brazilians will go to the polls to choose the next President of the Republic, as well as federal, state and district governors, senators and deputies, in the first round of elections.
- The possible second round should take place on October 25.
- The Lula government believes that the 2026 conflict will continue to be marked by clashes between opposing political camps, with little room for moderation – just as was the case in 2022.
- The elections are expected to once again be structured in a direct comparison between two national projects: Lula’s and Bolsonaro’s.
- According to the government, it is difficult to develop competitive applications outside the two poles.
- More than the facts and achievements during the mandates, the electoral campaign must be marked by the war of speeches.
To reach the Lula 4 government, on a path that risks experiencing several setbacks, Planalto has already developed strategies. During the first half of the electoral year, according to sources, there will be a mobilization of government actions around issues of social appeal, combined with the dissemination of what has already been achieved by the PT administration. The plan should also guide the tone of the election campaign.
Examples include exploring the income tax exemption program for those earning up to R$5,000, one of Lula’s electoral promises, which was fulfilled — after being unanimously approved by the Chamber of Deputies and the Federal Senate — at the end of November and which will begin in 2026.
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The Planalto holder must continue to focus on the “tax justice” narrative, as the law offsets the amount that would be collected with a 10% tax on the so-called “super-rich” – people who earn more than R$600,000 per year.
The government must also adopt flags such as zero fare in urban transport, a subject that is expected to gain ground throughout the year and which has Lula’s direct interest in moving forward.
The end of the 6×1 scale is another subject of strong social mobilization and which benefits from the support and direct coordination of members of the Executive, such as the Minister of the General Secretariat of the Presidency, Guilherme Boulos (PSol-SP). The subject was raised during the president’s speech on national television on Christmas Eve.
“No right is more urgent today than the right to time. It is not fair that a person is forced to work hard for six days. The end of the 6×1 scale is a demand of the people that it is up to us, representatives of the people, to listen to and turn into reality,” Lula said.
Flag of the government, the Draft Amendment to the Constitution (PEC) which proposes the 5×2 scale was approved by the Constitution and Justice Commission (CCJ) of the Senate on December 10. Now the text must be discussed in the plenary session of the House, but there is still no date for its analysis.
According to Boulos, the change in working hours will be a priority of the general manager in 2026 and the intention is to approve it in the first half of the year.
A Bolsonaro as an opponent
In the perspective of a concentrated conflict between Lula and a candidate supported by former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), members of the government believe that the choice of the main right-wing name does not change much in the scenario. Any candidate from this camp, they say, will necessarily be associated with the former president, who remains the leader and electoral guarantor of the right.
The internal reading is that there is no room for an independent or “cool” Bolsonaro candidacy.
At the beginning of December, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) announced that he had been chosen by his father as PL candidate for the 2026 elections. The decision was ratified in a handwritten letter from the former president, directly from the hospital where he has been hospitalized since Wednesday (12/24). The document was read by Flávio to journalists this Thursday (25/12), Christmas Day.
“Throughout my life I have fought difficult battles, paying a high price, with my health and my family, to defend what I believe is best for our Brazil,” Bolsonaro began. “Faced with this scenario of injustice and with the commitment not to let the popular will be silenced, I have taken the decision to nominate Flávio Bolsonaro as pre-candidate for President of the Republic in 2026,” he wrote.
Those interlocutors of the executive power believe that the name of Flávio favors Lula and makes the ground easier for re-election than if the conflict took place with the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans). Indeed, the senator, currently numerically behind Lula in the polls, is an adversary who has more difficulty rallying the Centrão and moderate voters to his candidacy, because he is naturally rejected because he is part of the Bolsonaro clan.
And research?
According to the Paraná Pesquisas survey, published this Friday (12/26), Lula is in the lead in all scenarios for the first and second round. He appears with around ten points ahead of Flávio during the simulation of the first round. In the second, the two are technically tied, within the margin of error, but, numerically, the PT deputy has an advantage — 44.1% against 41% for the senator.
Tarcísio was seen by the market and business world as the name capable of unifying the right, attracting the center and reducing economic uncertainty. However, so far he has not given up trying to be re-elected to the Palácio dos Bandeirantes. According to Paraná Pesquisas, Tarcísio is the most competitive name against Lula in the second round, with a difference of 1.5 percentage points, or 44% for the PT member against 42.5% for the SP governor.
Government aides also point out that, with Bolsonaro imprisoned and therefore weakened, the former president could still change his mind depending on the alliances made until his candidacy is official next year.
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