Putin seeks to distance India under Modi from the West and enhance its military capabilities in Ukraine

In theory, Putin’s visit seeks to strengthen the economic alliance between the two countries. After the 50% tariffs imposed Donald TrumpModi must increase exports to alternative markets while Putin needs many things that India offers: from food – shrimp, rice, fruit – to heavy machinery, including, of course, auto parts and electronic equipment.

We must remember that initially the tariffs imposed by Trump on India were only 25%. But at the end of August, the US President decided to double it in order to punish the increasing imports of Russian oil – which rose from 2.5% in 2021 to 36% recorded at the beginning of the year – by New Delhi. Some information indicates that since this increase in customs duties came into effect, India has been buying less Russian crude oil, and this is why Steve Rosenberg – BBC editor specializing in Russia – believes that Putin will take advantage of this visit to regain lost ground.

Overall, much of the conversation between the two leaders is expected to revolve around the defense industry. It is no coincidence that on Tuesday, two days before the trip, the Duma – the lower house of the Russian Parliament – ratified the military treaty signed with the Indians last February. An agreement called Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics Support but known as RELOS.

“Our relations with India are as strategic as they are comprehensive and we value them,” the State Duma speaker declared at the beginning of the week. Vyacheslav Volodin. “We realize that ratifying the agreement is another step towards reciprocity and, of course, towards developing our ties.”

But what exactly is relus? Well, an agreement that defines procedures for sending military formations, warships and combat aircraft from one country to another while providing mutual logistical support. When will this procedure be activated? Well, according to the document, it will be activated within the framework of joint military maneuvers, during humanitarian missions and during relief missions after natural or resulting disasters. It is also possible to activate it – according to the newspaper Hindu– When “other agreed upon situations” occur.

The Duma itself explained in a statement published after the ratification that “the document will facilitate the mutual use of airspace and port calls in both countries by Russian and Indian warships.” He added, “The agreement will enhance military cooperation between the two countries.”

In addition to all of the above, several reports published throughout the week indicate that Modi wants to take advantage of Putin’s visit to complete the purchase of a large amount of Russian weapons. Specifically, the S-500 (improved) anti-aircraft missile systems and the SU-57 fifth generation fighters. Two elements that will expand India’s military muscle months after the latest armed confrontation with Pakistan.

Although there are analysts who claim that the Kremlin cannot dispense with many weapons due to the war in Ukraine, other experts point out that an important part of the products that India intends to begin exporting in large quantities will go directly to Russian arms factories. In parallel, a potential agreement on immigration matters also appears to be on the table to try to attract qualified Indian workers to Russia.

In addition to the technical aspects that will be discussed during Putin’s visit to the Russian researcher Peter Topichkanov -From A Think tank Al-Suwaidi called the International Peace Research Institute – he explained to a journalist from the British newspaper Guardian He added that for Russia, “the importance of this visit lies mainly in the fact that it takes place.”

The way Modi received Putin indicates, in Topychkanov’s opinion, that “Russia is returning to a semblance of normalcy in its international relations” and therefore “it should no longer worry about the risks of political isolation.”

The strengthening of relations between Russia and India – a Cold War-era relationship that has always been healthy – belies the growing mistrust that appears to prevail among NATO members. Specifically between the European member states of NATO and the United States.

It was leaked this Thursday specifically through the German magazine Der SpiegelA phone call in which the French President participated Emmanuel MacronThe German Chancellor, Friedrich MerzThey warned their European counterparts of the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky The Secretary General of NATO is Dutch Mark RutiAnd the possibility of Washington’s “betrayal” of Ukraine, and thus of the Old Continent.

“There is a possibility that the United States will betray Ukraine on the regional issue without offering clear security guarantees in return,” Macron reportedly said according to the transcript obtained by the German newspaper. He then warned Zelensky of the “great danger” he faces.

For his part, Merz accused Trump’s envoys to Moscow of his son-in-law Jared Kushner and Steve WitkoffFrom “playing” with the Europeans. Kushner and Witkoff spent several hours on Wednesday negotiating with Putin over a possible peace in Ukraine, which the Russian president appears to have rejected for the time being.

The distrust or skepticism – whichever you prefer – that the United States arouses in its European allies has already prompted countries like Germany to take measures that would have been unthinkable a few years ago. For example: reactivating military service, which is currently voluntary but may become compulsory if it turns out that the number of registrants does not reach the minimum.

In parallel, Europe is increasingly hosting more events that revolve around the rearmament of the continent, or in which this possibility is at least seriously and publicly discussed. Another happened a few days ago in Madrid specifically. I organized it Think tank The Ukrainian Transatlantic Dialogue Center and the Spanish association Eurodefense Joven España brought together geopolitical analysts, people from the academic world and high-ranking military officers.

“If we still do not understand today, after four years of war, that this is much closer, then we have a problem,” the analyst said. Manuel Gazabo LabaieseHe specializes in the field of international relations, referring to the threat that Russia poses to all of Europe. “Ukraine may seem far away, but I insist that it is much closer than it seems.”

LaPais then clarified that he was not just referring to open warfare, but to “hybrid threats” as well. Many of them, from the Spanish point of view, are located in the Sahel region. He said: “This war has many faces, many facets, and they all affect us.”