A veteran of the Russian naval infantry smokes in front of Moscow’s Leningrandsky station, under the first flakes of late winter. Konstantín, a soldier since 1999, has just taken another leave after six more months at the front. “Let the war end. We are all tired,” comes from his heart when asked how he sees the fourth year of the offensive against Ukraine.
We are in Podolsk, a modest suburb located on the outskirts of the Russian capital. So far and so close to the little lights of central Moscow that they amaze the American diplomats sent by President Donald Trump. Here, two old friends spend the morning on a small park bench. Both over 80 years old, they passionately debate the conflict. “It’s Putin’s fault, he shouldn’t have started the war,” says Valentina. “And not saving the people there, right?” Nina responds, citing information broadcast by Kremlin television. “There’s nothing left there,” Valentina responds. The war in Ukraine is another huge tragedy they have witnessed in their long lives.
As far as Antonio Machado is concerned, there are two Russias: the one that dies and the one that yawns. 66% of Russians consider that 2025 was “a normal year”, according to a survey by the independent Levada Center for Sociological Studies. Twelve months, from January to December, during which thousands of Russians died in a conflict that is about to exceed the duration of their Second World War. A year of inflation, corruption, elite purges and waves of Ukrainian drones in their cities. A development in which funeral directors charged 24% more than in 2024 while overseas tourism increased by 16.4%, returning to pre-covid levels with record figures in destinations like Thailand, the Maldives and the United Arab Emirates.
The front barely moves, at the cost of enormous losses. Russia is far from controlling the four regions it annexed on paper in 2022 (Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye) and has several times considered conquering small towns where Ukrainians continue to resist, such as Kupiansk and Pokrovsk. This Sunday, Trump and Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelensky meet to discuss the 20-point peace proposal that Moscow rejects: its diplomats describe it as “unacceptable” because it is “radically different” from the 27-point plan previously agreed by Moscow and Washington. In Russia, everyone knows, from opponents to loyalists, that President Vladimir Putin wants to put Ukraine at the mercy of Russia, that he is not content to retake Donbass or freeze the front.
Even if the Russians’ Instagram reels reflect a happy world, the soldiers recognize their fatigue at the front as well as at the rear, where integration is sometimes difficult. “The war will last a long time, at least another year or two,” adds party member Konstantín. Morskaya Pejotaone of Russia’s elite forces. This soldier from Vladivostok responds with a laconic “normal” when asked how he is received upon his return home.
Other soldiers express their disappointment with theirs. “Everyone around us should be proud of our heroic feat. Unfortunately, there are many strange opinions and questions,” veteran Maxim Bakharev, decorated Hero of Russia, recalled this month at the forum of veterans of the Ukrainian operation. The soldier, mutilated in the arms and legs, regrets that society does not treat him as he hoped.
Even some ultranationalists warn against the excessive duration of the “special operation”. “Our troops are very exhausted, tired and exhausted. Zaporizhzhia could become a cemetery for the Russian armed forces. Do you remember Grozny?” Russian activist Maxim Kalashnikov said in controversial statements this week.
Majority support for the invasion
On the civilian level, fatigue is also notable. 74% of Russians support the invasion of Ukraine, but only 31% want to continue fighting instead of negotiating peace. This is the lowest percentage in nearly four years of war, even though the Kremlin has yet to achieve any of its goals, according to another Levada survey.
A source close to Kremlin political circles tells this newspaper that the elite is also exhausted and wants the war “to end now”. The key here is Putin: with 85% approval, citizens accept whatever their president decides. However, the Russian leader has made war his way of life and does not seem to miss peace: “When everything is calm, contained, stable, we get bored”, admitted the leader just a year ago. However, the Russians want by 2026 to end their invasion of Ukraine once and for all.
Another survey by the Kremlin polling center, VTsIOM, reveals that more than half of the population, or 55%, want the war to end in 2026 and for the Kremlin to achieve its goals set in 2022: the “denazification” of Ukraine (the euphemism with which Moscow speaks of putting an end to the sovereign and democratic Ukrainian state whose existence it does not recognize) and its disarmament (leaving it to its own devices). thank you).
However, neither Putin nor his chief of staff, Valery Gerasimov, have managed to capture a single new Ukrainian provincial capital in nearly four years of invasion. Far from imposing a puppet government in Kyiv.
The Russian population does not constitute a monolithic bloc. The average citizen is allergic to protests and distrusts politicians, but he is loyal to his president. This verticality of power means that the only visible protest over even the most insignificant local issues is to direct a public video to Tsar Vladimir Vladimirovich demanding justice.
In summary, political scientist and journalist Andrei Kolesnikov estimates that one-fifth of the Russian population opposes the regime, one-fifth is ultranationalist, and the remaining three-fifths are submissive to the president as long as his actions do not excessively interfere in their lives.
The founder of the Khróniki (Russian Chronicles) project, Vsevolod Bederson, paints a portrait of a similar “mosaic” of society. According to polls, 21% of the population systematically supports peace. But there is a trick. Many of those who long for an end to the fighting are not criticizing the war, they simply want a return to calm.
Russia is a country unaccustomed to demonstrations, its last general strike dates back to the Russian Revolution of 1917. According to a survey carried out in October by Khróniki, only 4% of Russians would be ready to support political actions for peace and the end of the Russian regime. In contrast, 12% would support Putin if he decided to withdraw his troops and prioritize social spending over military spending, while a further 11% would be against the war but would not take part in any activist actions.
This spiral of silence makes any public declaration in favor of peace shocking. A few days ago, a comment by a popular actor Dmitry Naguiyev went viral during the presentation of his film “Christmas Tree 12” (yes, the 12th). “You ask me, in the fourth year of war, what adventures I experienced this year? he angrily responded to a reporter after remarking that his films are successful because they “offer the illusion of a happy life” compared to “boring and dirty” war films.
The appearance of a figure capable of uniting the pacifist sectors would find an important social base to put pressure on the Kremlin. But Putin gets rid of rival politicians when they start to stand out.
The Communist Party of Russia, the country’s second largest party, with significant potential to capture votes due to the economic crisis, is in the Kremlin’s crosshairs. Even though the federal leadership remains loyal to Putin, the police raided several regional branches where criticism of the establishment was gaining momentum.
The opposition Yábloko party, without a presence in the Duma, but firmly established throughout the country, is crushed by Putinism after surviving until now thanks to its low profile.
“Several polls show that 60% of Russians would support a ceasefire agreement without preconditions. This is precisely what our party defends,” Igor Yakovlev, the party’s press secretary, said by telephone. “As the military operation continues, the unconditional truce gains more and more support and, therefore, also from our training. This is one of the reasons why the pressure on Yábloko is intensifying,” adds the politician.
There is less than a year left before the legislative elections and Putin’s justice system has blocked any attempt at candidacy by the leader of Yabloko, Nikolai Rybakov, by sanctioning him for having published a photo of the opponent Alexeï Navalny on the day of his death. Likewise, six other members of the group were imprisoned and dozens more were fined.
Russians, even if they do not directly experience the war, feel its effects in their pockets. The economic crisis is worsening and the armed forces spend as much money in a week as 75% of regions do in a year. Inflation is outpacing wages, the government is increasingly hiding statistics – the latest, cancer deaths after a sharp cut in the health system – and industry in some previously strong areas, such as mining, has collapsed.
“The most important thing is whether our politicians are going to eat zucchini caviar with black bread – a very humble dish –. They are charlatans,” Valentina quips about the crisis. “Why did we need a war,” he adds. Her friend Nina believes that the crisis will persist and the negotiations will fail, so the only outcome is victory. “Our only hope lies in our men,” he said. Both agree that it is a tragedy to see “millions of new graves” in cemeteries.
favor treatment
Opponents or sectors favorable to the Kremlin, all have learned a lesson from the scandal of the year in Russia: if they want, they can succeed in putting pressure on the authorities. An old Russian singing star, Larisa Dolina, one of Putin’s favorite singers, got back in court a house she regretted selling a posteriori. The artist had sold the apartment to intermediaries who in turn sold it to another citizen. Putin’s court sided with Dolina and kept the apartment and its payment, leaving the other woman without money or housing. After a massive boycott that reached the State Duma, the Supreme Court overturned the favorable treatment given to the Putin diva to bring some justice to the people.
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