GDP result (gross domestic product) from the third quarter of this year shows a clear loss of pace industry It points to more than that worrying For the sector in the coming months, it is evaluated in the memorandum of the National Federation of Industry (CNI).
“Although industrial GDP rose by 0.8% between July and September, sector growth fell from 3% in the first quarter to 1.8% in the third quarter,” says the CNI president. Ricardo Albanin the statement.
Alban points out in the text that there is a gap between rising interest rates and the materialization of its effects on the economy. This means, he says, that a further loss of pace must occur. “(High) interest rates, weak domestic demand and a significant rise in imports will significantly complicate the scenario in the coming months,” he estimates.
Regarding the overall increase of 0.1% of GDP in the third quarter, the president says that it was within expectations, and “directly reflects the contractionary monetary policy adopted by the central bank to control inflation.”
the Labor marketIn contrast, they have remained stable after a long period of growth that exceeded expectations, “which actually reflects the effects of fiscal policy and high interest rates, which affects the income mass of workers,” he says. “As a result, consumption grew by just 0.1%. This is much lower than the previous quarterly increases of 0.6% each.”
He says it’s no coincidence that domestic demand for industrial products rose just 0.1% in the third quarter. Moreover, part of the demand was shifted to the purchase of imported consumer goods, which rose by 17% between January and October 2025, compared to the same period last year.
“These factors have limited industry growth, especially manufacturing, which grew by 0.3%, but also retail trade, which explains why service sector GDP rose by only 0.1% between July and September this year,” he explains.
Alban highlights that the performance of some productive sectors prevented the economy from slowing further. Thanks to the strong harvest performance, planting rose 0.4% in the third quarter. The extractive industry recorded an increase of 1.7%, the fourth in a row, due to the growth of oil and gas exploration.
Other positive data came from the construction sector, whose GDP rose by 1.3%, halting two consecutive quarterly declines.
Despite growing by 0.9% in the third quarter, investment as a share of GDP fell from 17.4% to 17.3%. “The result is worrying because, in addition to the modest performance of the manufacturing industry, it reveals the difficulty of expanding the economy’s productive capacity in the short term,” he analyzes.
/i.s3.glbimg.com/v1/AUTH_63b422c2caee4269b8b34177e8876b93/internal_photos/bs/2025/i/A/FM6zb6QZeq48WjgHKPxw/3004ricardoalbanfotowendersonaraujo-59.jpg)