There will be no Christmas present for Trump in Gaza, nor does that appear to be the case on the other two fronts where he is seeking peace: Venezuela and Ukraine. Of all, the one that seemed closest seemed until today to be the Middle East, after the … ceasefire agreement concluded last October. The first phase is now practically resolved with the return to Israel of all the remains of Jewish hostages (in the absence of a single one).
The phase which should be launched before the end of the year is one of the most crucial: the installation of a technocratic government (a Peace Cabinet), accompanied by a multinational force mandated by the UN. Once these soldiers and police officers, under the orders of the interim cabinet, have taken control of the Gaza Strip, the Israeli army will have to completely withdraw to the borders before October 2023.
Donald Trump has just said that the “second phase” will have to wait until the beginning of the year, that is to say January 2026 at the earliest. There is a debate over who will lead the political/technocrat team. It is clear that the boss will be Trump himself, who will delegate to two or three trusted people.
Until now, it seemed clear that the former British Prime Minister would be primarily responsible. Tony Blairadmired by all for his mediation work since he left power in 2007. Curiously that year he also announced his conversion to Catholicism, and this circumstance does not sit well with Arab countries, who are asking Trump to choose someone else. Trump’s son-in-law would also be part of the Gaza team, Jared Kushnerand his special envoy to the region, Steve Wittkoff.
The military dimension of the “second phase” for Gaza is even more complex. The so-called International Stabilization Force must have as its mission the security of the population of the Gaza Strip, and this inevitably involves the disarmament of Hamas, the radical Palestinian movement which still maintains militias and an arsenal in Gaza’s maze of underground tunnels.
Who will ring the cat? None of the troop-contributing countries – they must be Muslim as stipulated – that the Trump administration is targeting seem willing to confront Hamas on their territory, to force it to surrender its arms. Azerbaijan said noTurkey might be willing to do this, but Israel vetoes it due to its affinity with Hamas, Egypt is still waiting.
For its part, Qatar, a small, very rich emirate which wants to play a leading role in the conflict, has sided with Hamas in the conflict over the future multinational force. At a meeting in Doha last weekend, Qatari Prime Minister Mohamed al Thani said the truce was “paper mache” because the Israeli army still occupies part of the enclave. He also stressed that Hamas cannot be forced to surrender until negotiations on a future Palestinian state begin to be discussed.
As a cover story, the influential Qatari Arab network Al Yasira interviewed the man who turns out to be the leader of Hamas, Khaled Mashaalwho once again stressed that there will be no surrender or handover of weapons to Gaza “until a legitimate Palestinian government is installed.”
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