A national study by the Genial/Quaest institute shows that 49% of voters believe that Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-SP) will go through with his candidacy for the presidency, announced in early December and revealed by Metropolises.
According to the survey, 38% think that the movement’s main objective would be political negotiation. Another 13% said they didn’t know or preferred not to answer.
Perception varies depending on the political positioning of voters. Among those who believe that the first son of former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) will follow through with his candidacy, 81% consider themselves Bolsonaro supporters. This rate drops to 32% among those who say they vote for President Lula (PT).
Among Lulistas, we also find the highest percentage of those who think that Flávio should use his candidacy to “negotiate”, at 57%, compared to 12% among those who say they are supporters of Bolsonaro.
Flávio launched his bid for the presidency after receiving the blessing of his father, Jair Bolsonaro, who was imprisoned in Brasilia after being sentenced to 27 years in prison for leading the coup plot. Incarcerated and ineligible, Bolsonaro cannot run in 2026 and has decided to appoint his eldest son to preserve his political heritage.
The announcement, however, was not unanimous, even among the allies of Bolsonarism and, in the first days, it was treated as a so-called trial balloon – especially by those who defended the candidacy for governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans).
The survey was carried out among 2,004 respondents, between December 11 and 14, with a margin of error of 1 percentage point and a confidence level of 95%.
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