Former Undersecretary of Finance, Ramiro Tosiin contact with Canal E, referred to the evolution of the exchange rate in Argentina, which is once again at the center of the economic scene.
Ramiro Tosi explained that the market had already predicted the current scenario. “The future we see for the dollar It is the future that the market has seen“, he explained, recalling that “at least three months ago, based on the price of the future dollar, all the contracts that mature in March were trading above these exchange rate bands at 1% per month“.
The inconsistencies of the exchange system
As he explained, the original plan was based on an assumption that was not fulfilled. “That’s what we said The scheme was inconsistent because it was created under the assumption that inflation actually approaches 1% monthly, Thing that didn’t happen“, he claimed. In this sense he explained: “Inflation since May.” began to increase gradually from 1.5. until 2.5. November and In December we will wait for a similar record“.
This discrepancy caused the upper limit of the exchange rate band to become a problem. “If you continued on this path, The band ceiling would quickly become a problem“Tosi warned. Furthermore, he questioned the official delay in recognizing the need for reserves.” The central bank finally acknowledged it belatedly that had to accumulate international reserves“, he noted, emphasizing: “Argentina is vulnerable still in external terms.”
How much could the central bank collect?
In this context, he explained the recent announcements: “On the one hand, the government has announced Adjusting the bands“. He also emphasized that it will begin Buy reservationstry it don’t change the price of the exact stock market.” He also explained that the initial participation would be “in the”. 5% of daily volume”, meaning that “every day on average the central bank I would buy between $25 and $30 million a day“.
Looking at the months with the greatest supply, the respondent said: “You have to be precise about your degree.” the size of your interventions” so that “effectively the central bank Accumulate reserves“. Regarding the goal, he explained: “To reach that famous 10 billion.” That’s a pretty conservative estimate.“.
One of the dilemmas, he noted, is inflationary costs. “By accumulating reserves, you are in some way paying the cost of a faster decline in inflation, But you have the advantage of being stronger on the outside“, he explained.
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