- Industry and consumption
- Engines
The slight correction made by the INDEC index to the Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity (EMAE) series forced analysts to… To recalibrate — very slightly — their expectations. It is not a change that changes the general picture, but it is sufficient to reopen a permanent debate: How much will the economy grow in 2025, especially if this growth can be maintained in 2026?. With nuance, the consensus is starting to take shape: 2025 will be somewhat better than 2026. This is not a boom, but a step upward.
Indic update I opened a gap Between official data and market expectations. The statistics agency reported that activity grew by 5.2% between January and September. On the other hand, the central bank’s REM Group expects modest progress for the fourth quarter – 0.3% – and annual growth of 3.9%, while the “top ten” estimates the figure at about 4%. In the 2026 draft budget, the government goes further: it talks about… 5.4% this year and 5% next year. An economy that is accelerating and almost achieving Chinese growth. None of that is on the radar of special advisers today.
Where will the gap fit? Will the floor rise—EMAE—or will the ceiling fall—REM—?
“probably There is a middle ground“, He says Sebastian MeniscaldiFrom ecogo. For an economist, the INDEC technical revision hardly adjusts the statistical drag. “October should be negative. Agriculture is contributing positively, industry is declining, and services are slowing down. With all this, we expect 4.2% for 2025 and 2.4% for 2026“.
He explains why a 5% expansion next year is impractical: “To achieve this, we would have to grow at 10% annually in the final months of 2026. This requires investments worth $60 billion. “We don’t see that as possible.”
From Cohen, Martin Polo He adds another nuance: “The global econometric index correction took the world by surprise. It had a big impact, but the economy is slowing down. It shows in all sectors.” Today we are witnessing growth of 4.5% this year, then it will decrease to 3% in 2026.. There are no drivers for more.
Industry and consumption
The manufacturing industry, which was showing improvement in the middle of the year, lost speed again. The Industrial Production Index (IPI) records moderate increases year on year, But it is shrinking quarter by quarter. Sectors such as food, chemicals and agricultural machinery remain active, while textiles, metal manufacturing and automobiles are declining or stagnating. Structural data: The industry is still operating below the level of 2017 and is a long way from the peak reached in 2011. It is difficult to talk about an expansionary cycle on this basis.
The structure, which is always sensitive to the overall rhythm, alternates between positive and negative months. ISAC shows year-over-year improvements, but remains below pre-pandemic levels. Public Works – which has served for years as a buffer zone – remains subject to containment through fiscal adjustment, The recovery of the private sector by sector: Medium-sized works, renovations, and specific projects related to recent mortgage credit. But general photography is a non-stop activity.
Retail trade reflects the dual speed of consumption. Bills are growing, but they are explained by prices, not quantities. Services – especially gastronomy, domestic tourism and leisure activities – had a good start to the year, supported by salaries that regained some air and by a public that adjusted other elements to preserve leisure. But since June, the slowdown has become noticeable: there is activity, yes, but the real volume is not expanding.
Engines
Agriculture It is the only sector that promises to provide oxygen. After a historic drought, the 2025/2026 campaign expects significant improvements in wheat, corn and soybeans. The Grain Exchange estimates that total production could once again approach 130 million tons. This means more transportation, more services, more exports, and a direct contribution to GDP. It is the main driver of sustainability of activity in the coming year.
Energy Sector – Vaca Muerta, Renewables, Gas Transportation – Maintains its own agenda. There are ongoing works, capacity expansions and export projects. But the big jump depends on external financing, and the risks facing the country remain an insulating barrier. If the risk premium exceeds 600 points and stabilizes, a huge investment channel can be opened. For now, it’s “yes.”“.
Employment figures confirm a heterogeneous trend. Registered employment in the private sector is advancing, but slowly. The positions being created are in the professional services, logistics, software and energy sectors. Industrial and commercial wage employment – which is much larger – is still far from its best moment. The informal sector remains high, despite some setbacks: more than 42%.
What happens with consumption remains at the heart of the discussion. As Oliveto shows, between January and October 2025, expensive products – cars, motorcycles, foreign tourism, household appliances, and title deeds – rose by between 30% and 50% year-on-year. The rest, every day, barely moves.
The conclusion is the same: Those who have savings consume; Those who depend on the salary are seized. As long as real wages do not recover, it is almost impossible for the economy to jump from 3% to 5% growth.
Next 2026
For 2026, the forecast will depend on three factors:
*Reducing country risksThe availability of external credit and the ability to maintain financial balance without stifling activity.
*If these three parts are aligned, it is possible to unify the investment cycle that promotes agriculture, energy and part of industry. If not, 2026 will be a year of moderate growth, with dynamic sectors but without huge spillover effects.
*At the moment, the economy Moves with aggro that returnsIndustry does not start, fragile construction and consumption divided into two parts. Our challenge next year will not be to grow by withdrawal, but to build a new engine.