A new growth cycle driven by Artificial intelligence (AI)? Or a reissue of old excess corporate debt? The return of the greats corporate operations on Wall Street reopened a debate that seemed outdated since the era of easy money: the systemic risk associated with massive debt in an interest rate environment always high.
The public purchase offer hostile from Paramount on Warner Bros Discoveryvalued at $77.9 billion, including $54 billion in debt, reignited the debate. There is also the counter-offer from Netflix, which responded with a more ambitious proposal, mobilized with an additional 59 billion. The two operations would be among the largest of the decadeand in both cases, the cash payment is marginal: the financial power is borrowed.
Everything is bought with debt
According to the latest global survey of managers conducted by Bank of America, the main fear by 2026, it’s not a tech bubblenot even a generalized stock market correction. It’s the debt. 26% of respondents identify excessive leverage as the biggest risk to the markets, well ahead of fears of technological overvaluations (9%). The concern is no longer about asset prices, but about the sustainability of balance sheets.
And it’s no wonder. This isn’t just the case for Warner. This year was marked by large-scale leveraged corporate transactions. Another of the most striking is the attempted delisting of Electronic Arts, valued at 55 billion, in which funds like Silver Lake, Affinity Partners and the Saudi sovereign wealth fund. It would be the largest leveraged buyout in history. Part of this financing, around 20 billion, would also come in the form of debt.
26% of respondents identify excessive leverage as the biggest risk to markets
The phenomenon is not marginal. According to Reuters And Bloombergthe global volume of mergers and acquisitions It’s already approaching $4.5 trillion in 2025, with operations exceeding 10 billion euros executed at a record pace.
Another relevant deal in this new wave of credit-financed megamergers is the union between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southernvalued at more than $80 billion. It is an operation which confirms that leverage is no longer exclusive to the technology or entertainment sector. Even mature and traditionally funded sectors with internal flows, they turn to massive debt to gain scale.
Another recent example is Broadcom, which finalized the acquisition of VMware for $69 billion. After the presentation of the results, the market did not focus on revenues or profits, but on the balance sheet: more precisely, the amount of its debt. Shares fell 11% in a single day. Likewise, Oracle, which increased its debts to to develop in AI, accumulates a drop of more than 30% since Septemberwhile their CDS (non-payment insurance) have doubled in one month.
Historical leverage and shadow banking
“We see a market where debt is once again the main driver growth”, says Juan Carlos Ureta, executive president of Renta 4 Banco. Ureta emphasizes that “large leveraged operations do not They only multiply the risk in the event of a problem; In addition, many no longer go through the traditional banking channel. »
In fact, the data from The Financial Stability Board reveals that the so-called “Non-bank credit” or “shadow banking” already moves more than $60 trillion around the world. In the United States, according to the same source, 70% of Corporate debt already comes from off-balance sheet banks.
The warnings no longer come only from academic analysts, but from the very core of the scientific community. financial system. Jamie DimonCEO of JP Morgan, has repeatedly warned that the sector’s explosive growth private credit constitutes “one of the biggest hidden risks in the system current financial situation”, due to its low capacity to absorb losses in a stress scenario.
The consequence is twofold: on the one hand, more liquidity available for high-risk operations. On the other hand, less visibility and regulation on who really take that risk. According to S&P Global, The volume of debt-financed deals has increased by 34% so far in 2025, with structures becoming increasingly complex, aggressive and difficult to value.
More optimism in the stock market than in credit
Despite this context, the end of the stock market year is positive. He The end-of-year “rally” continues, supported by expectations rate moderation in 2026. But some voices in the market warn that the path will not be so simple. This is the case of Savita Subramanian, chief strategist of Bank of America, which lowers its estimate for the S&P 500 at 7,100 points, well below the consensus which places it above 7,500 points.
Overall, the equity market can continue to grow, but the debt the company is starting to show signs of fatigue. Mergers are multiplying, money is flowing again, and leaders are celebrating the new technology cycle. But the dynamics that are emerging with excess credit, the shadow banking system and the increase in financing costs are reminiscent of stages that ended in abrupt adjustments.
Ureta sum up the moment with a warning: “We are in the early stages of a new financial regime, where AI, tokenization and digital assets are transforming the market… but excess debt always has consequences.”
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