The Mexican economy is accumulating a series of negative results. The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) announced on Monday that the value of financial transfers from abroad in October amounted to $5.635 million, which represents an annual decrease of 1.7%. Although this is an increase compared to the previous month, the accumulation of inward remittances into the country adds up to seven months of consecutive declines, according to the report issued by the central bank.
The phenomenon of a general decline in remittances for several consecutive months has not been observed since April 2020, when there were 18 months of contraction in shipments, due to the impact of the recession experienced in the United States in the past decade. In October, Mexicans reduced the frequency of sending money by 5.4%, but the value of money they sent to their families increased by 4%.
The remittance picture also looks bleak if you look at total remittances for one year. In ten months of 2025, their total amounted to $51.344 million, which translates into a 5.08% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. “It is the first annual decline for a similar period since 2013 and the largest for a similar period since 2009,” says Gabriela Siler, director of economic analysis at Grupo Base.
It is the number of transactions made by US citizens that attracts the most attention. At the end of October, 13.991 million transfers were recorded. “This means 7.06 million fewer transactions compared to the first 10 months of 2024, so many people in Mexico who received remittances last year will stop receiving remittances in 2025, and the number continues to grow,” says Sellers.
The amount sent to families in Mexico also shows erratic behavior. On the one hand, transfers averaged $403 at the end of October, recording a monthly decline of 1.77%, after falling by 1.49% in September. The economic analyst says: “But at an annual rate, the average remittances show an annual growth of 4.13%, and in the first ten months of the year, the average remittances reached $394.5.”
The weak labor market in the United States is one of the factors leading to a decline in remittances sent to the country. In the first nine months of 2025, nonfarm payrolls showed an average monthly job creation of 76,000 jobs, well below the average monthly creation in the same period in 2024 of 153,800 jobs. “This created 24.35% fewer jobs than were created in the same months of 2024 and the lowest number of new jobs since 2021,” says the Grupo Base analyst.
Additionally, the working population’s concerns about President Donald Trump’s immigration policy remain a deciding factor in sending money into the country. In October, the number of people detained by ICE increased by 67.6% compared to the same month in 2025. “Year-over-year growth in the number of people detained by ICE shows an inverse correlation of 0.70% with the annual variation in the number of transfers,” Seiler concludes.