Research shows Lula and Bolsonaro clan ‘helping each other’ in 2026 elections

A voting intention survey carried out by the Arrow Institute between December 1 and 2 showed that polarization persists between President Lula and the Bolsonaro family, which has now chosen Senator Flávio as candidate for the Planalto Palace.

In one of the scenarios studied, without the presence of the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), Flávio Bolsonaro appears with 21.7% of voting intentions, behind Lula, with 37.2%. The governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado (União-GO), comes far in third position, with 9.3% of intentions.

4 picturesClose the modal.1 of 4

Flávio Bolsonaro was chosen by Jair Bolsonaro to run for president with Lula in 2026, but research suggests possible defeat

Hugo Barreto/Metrópoles @hugobarretophoto2 of 4

São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas identified as possible presidential candidate in 2026

Reproduction / Social networks3 of 4

“We don’t need a genocide to fight banditry,” says Lula

Disclosure/YouTube Lula4 of 4

Research shows greater polarization between Lula and group led by Jair Bolsonaro

Art/Metropolises

In a sample in which Flávio Bolsonaro was replaced by Tarcísio de Freitas, Lula remained in the lead with 38.1%. The governor of São Paulo obtained 27%, followed by Ciro Gomes (PSDB), with 7.1%.

“The study shows that the polarization between Lula and the candidate supported by Jair Bolsonaro persists. In a certain way, this interdependence helps them both reach the second round of the 2026 elections,” assesses political scientist Rodrigo Bethlem, head of the investigation.

Second round and rejection

Arrow Institute research also presented two scenarios for the runoff. In the conflict between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the PT deputy would have an advantage, with 45.9% against 36.3%. The president would, however, lose to Tarcísio de Freitas, who obtained 41.9% against 38.4% for Lula.

The survey also asked voters about their assessment of the Lula government and their rejection of former President Jair Bolsonaro and the candidates he nominated. The PT administration was approved by 42.5% of respondents, while 52% said they disapproved of Lula’s administration.

As for voting for the candidates nominated by Jair Bolsonaro, 45.6% said they would not follow the former president’s instructions. 37.1% said they voted for the names proposed by Bolsonaro.

The survey interviewed 9,539 voters over the age of 18 by telephone in Brazil’s five regions. Sampling has a confidence level of 95%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1%.