Risk of recidivism in gender-based violence

1. Risk of recidivism in the event of gender violence
2. The interior takes the plunge towards the VioGen-2 system
3. Failures in abuser control bracelets
4. New forms to reduce assessment errors
5. Factors that increase or neutralize risk
6. Mortal Risk Scale
7. Lawyers, criminologists and data scientists

Risk of recidivism in the event of gender violence

He Home office decided to undertake a comprehensive effectiveness analysis forms used in the VioGén-2 system for assessing police risks.

It will also collect proposals aimed at significantly improving its capacity to adequately detect, categorize and manage risk of recidivism in the event of gender violence.

Thanks to this risk analysis, security forces, judges and administrations make decisions concerning police, assistance and judicial resources they assign and the measures they adopt to protect victims.

This is detailed in the documents consulted by Digital Confidentiality. Promote this project Area of ​​gender violenceStudies and Training, of the General Directorate of Coordination and Studies, which depends on Secretary of State for Security.

That General Directorate of Coordination and Studies is an organ of support and advice from the Ministry of the Interiorwith functions of coordination and supervision of the actions of state security forces and bodies. Among other functions, it is created under the name of the Central Service for Combating Gender-based Violence, for the direction, definition and operation of the Comprehensive monitoring system for cases of gender violence.

The current director general is the chief commissioner Eugénio Pereirowho, not so long ago, was responsible for Information Commissioner Generalthe anti-terrorism investigation unit of the National Police.

🗣️ “Under the aegis of #VioGen2women are more protected” 🛡️.

Grande-Marlaska explains that the fight against gender-based violence is an absolute priority 🚨.

With VioGen 2:
🗄️ +data
🎯 real note
🧠 the human factor, key#ZeroViolence #GreatMarlaska #25N pic.twitter.com/GiEIJtLHun

– Ministry of the Interior (@interiorgob) November 25, 2025

The interior takes the plunge towards the VioGen-2 system

The Gender Violence, Studies and Training Area has decided to launch this initiative for the development of the analysis and revision of the forms of the VioGén-2 system, which make it possible to determine the existing risk of recidivism with regard to the suffering of gender violence or fatal violence “in a very reliable», According to Interior.

Recently, The interior has evolved the system to VioGen-2 And updated the platform which manages this entire global surveillance system for cases of gender violence.

In January 2025, the interior ministers, Fernando Grande Marlaskaand equality, Ana Redondopublicly presented the new model of police response to gender violence.

This model relies on two central instruments: the VioGén 2 system, a “newly designed digital platform that incorporates the most advanced technology in this matter”, and the 2025 Protocol, which brings together and updates all the new features introduced by the successive instructions issued by the Secretary of State for Security since 2018.

Failures in abuser control bracelets

It should be remembered that, months after this announcement, the report from the State Attorney General’s Office highlighted the breakdowns in telematics bracelets that judges impose men reported for gender-based violence and subject to restraining ordersprecisely a way of warning of possible attempts at recurrence.

The Department for Combating Gender Violence of the General Directorate of Coordination and Studies concluded that the old IT platform of the VioGén system did not allow for further improvements. He chose to design a new one, which was submitted to tests for seven months in national police stations and in civil guard barracks.

The government boasted that “the the new VioGén 2 system integrates technical and functional improvements at different levels that allow increasing practical management, improving collaboration channels with other institutions and interconnecting databases related to the fight against gender violence.

New forms to reduce assessment errors

Among these new features, he emphasized that “it integrates new indicators in risk assessment forms and better calibration of the algorithms that determine these levels, which reduces the risk of assessment error accomplished.”

In the week of celebration of #8M We remember the chapter from “From the Inside” on the protection of victims of gender violence #Viogene

They tell it themselves and the members of @police And @guardiacivil in charge?￢ﾀﾍ♀️?￢ﾀﾍ♂️

? Full Chapter ➡️ https://t.co/ZJr9ZLT9dQ pic.twitter.com/NgW3nqph00

– Ministry of the Interior (@interiorgob) March 5, 2025

It was in October that the Interior began in earnest to undertake a study to update the risk assessment forms in the event of gender violence.

The documents justify that “it is a ideal time to review, update and improve forms used to carry out a better police assessment of risk in terms of gender violence.

Factors that increase or neutralize risk

Professional and scientific work published since the last revision of these forms “has clarified more precisely what factors that may increase or neutralize said risk“.

Interior Ministry specialists in gender violence research estimated that existing scientific knowledge could be used to achieve more effective protection of women victims of gender violence.

He hopes to obtain an updated assessment of the effectiveness of the forms and, if possible, an improvement of them.

“Given the scientific advances that have emerged recently in terms of predictive models, move towards future possibilities in the assessment and management of risks in terms of gender violence which will be carried out with compliance with current legislation“.

Mortal Risk Scale

So far, a series of mathematical and statistical prediction modelsin which they are introduced variable on circumstances of the victim and the person reported as the alleged attacker.

Forms are in effect Police risk assessment (VPR), of Police assessment of evolving risks (VPER) and Mortal Risk Scale.

? We are moving forward. We are persistent. Are #VioGen2.

? @interiorgob a campaign starts in collaboration with broadcasters #TowandaRebels to explain the improvements, debunked myths and how the system works.

? https://t.co/7vdjvgvRYh pic.twitter.com/ytjkA4bsHh

– Ministry of the Interior (@interiorgob) November 11, 2025

When analyzing the effectiveness of forms and defining improvements, Interior pursues the following specific goals:

— Evaluate the degree of effectiveness of current instruments (VPR, VPER and Homicide Scale) regarding the performance parameters used in instruments for assessing the risk of violent behavior.

— Identify the operational and analytical limitations that may affect reliability evaluations carried out.

— Proposal and design of alternative or complementary predictive models, non-autonomous or machine learning basedwhich make it possible to improve the discrimination parameters (predictive capacity at different time intervals) and calibration (correct classification of risks by levels) and, with it, more effective management of police, assistance and judicial resources assigned to each case.

— Integrate, from an evidence-based perspective and according to expert criteria, new risk indicatorsor reformulate existing ones, ensuring their relevance and applicability in the operational environment of security forces and bodies.

— Develop and validate new police risk assessment forms with the predictive models proposed by scientifically recognized measures (ROC curves, sensitivity, specificity, error rate, survival curves, OR, etc.), including an analysis of its real applicability and its impact on decision-making.

— Evaluate possible biases arising from the use of current forms or proposed models, with special attention to vulnerable groups because of age, origin or socio-economic condition or other latent, guaranteeing the principle of fairness in the police assessment of risk.

“In short, explains the Interior, it is a question of providing the Secretary of State for Security with some improved technical tools to support police decision-making Regarding the current version, more precise, efficient and adjusted to the reality of the caseseffectively contributing to the overall protection of victims and the optimization of the use of public resources.

Lawyers, criminologists and data scientists

Although the General Directorate of Coordination and Studies has this area of ​​gender violence, you will outsource the audit of forms on risk assessment.

You are going to hire “a multidisciplinary technical team”, which must offer a combination of legal, criminological, statistical and technological skills.

A first professional profile will be that of lawyer, sociologist and criminologist specialist in gender violence risk assessment and crime prevention.

Interior requires that you have a degree in law or criminology and have specific training in victimology or protection systemsand knowledge of institutional structures for victim protection, police systems and inter-institutional coordination.

He will be responsible for carrying out the legal, ethical, psychological and criminological analysis of the regulatory and institutional framework applicable to the VioGén system and the forms examined, and the assessment of the legal, conceptual and operational adequacy of the current risk indicators included in the VPR, VPER and Homicide Scale forms.

It must guarantee “the consistency of the technical report with the principles of legality, comprehensive protection, non-discrimination and attention to victims”, and will coordinate the writing and final validation of the documents presented.

This lawyer/criminologist will also assume technical direction and leadership of the project, as well as internal coordination of the team.

The team will also have a data scientist specialized in the processing of epidemiological data and Public Administration and Health: graduate in Statistics, Mathematics, Operational Research or similar, with knowledge in analysis tools.

Third, Interior will hire a graduate in Computer engineering, statistics, data science, artificial intelligence or related disciplines. Will focus on analyze the data and design a new predictive model.