Russia-Ukraine war: the “thorny” questions that threaten the American peace plan

It is hard to imagine Putin accepting this proposal and Russian generals have informed him that they are quickly seizing Ukrainian territory.

“If the kyiv authorities do not want to resolve this issue peacefully, we will resolve all the problems we face by military means,” Putin said.

Both camps are considered exhausted. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War estimate that Russian forces will only be able to conquer the rest of Donetsk in August 2027, if they maintain their current speed of advance, which is not a certainty.

Zelensky’s compromise would also require Russian troops to leave other areas of Ukrainian territory where they maintain a limited presence. They include the Kharkiv region and Sumy in the north, Dnipropetrovsk in the east and Myokolaiv in the south.

Without movement in Donetsk, the possibility of a peace deal does not seem realistic, but a Russian compromise may not be out of the question.

Kremlin envoy Yuri Ushakov recently said that “it is entirely possible that there are no troops in Donbas, Russian or Ukrainian.” But he was adamant that the territory would be part of the Russian Federation.

Since March 2022, Russia has occupied Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, at Enerhodar, on the banks of the Dnipro River.

But the six nuclear reactors at the Zaporizhzhia power plant do not produce electricity. They have been in cold shutdown for more than three years and use external energy, supplied by Ukraine, to keep the plant running to avoid meltdowns.

To restart the plant, significant investments must be made, in particular to rebuild the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam, which was destroyed. It provided water to cool the factory.

Ukraine believes that the region should also be demilitarized and become a free economic zone. The American proposal, according to Zelensky, is for the United States to manage the factory, in collaboration with Russia and Ukraine.

kyiv said the proposal was unrealistic and that the United States and Ukraine could jointly manage the plant on an equal footing. And the United States would decide where half the energy would go – implicitly to Russia.

Ukraine’s problem is that Russia will not allow it and the head of Russia’s nuclear agency Rosatom, Alexei Likachev, stressed that only one country – Russia – can manage the plant and guarantee its safety.

He defended the possibility that Ukraine could use the electricity produced by the plant, within the framework of international cooperation.

Reaching a compromise on this issue may not be impossible, but it would require a level of trust that currently does not exist between the two neighboring states.

It is difficult to imagine that there can be significant progress on the thorniest issues, with so little trust between the two countries.

When Trump indicated this week that Putin “wants to see Ukraine succeed…even by providing energy…at very low prices,” Zelensky clearly didn’t believe a word of it. He does not believe that Putin is serious about peace in the region.

“I don’t trust the Russians and… I don’t trust Putin and he doesn’t want Ukraine to succeed,” the Ukrainian president said.

Russia has also shown little confidence in kyiv. Moscow accuses Ukrainian forces of directing drones at a Putin residence in Russia’s Novgorod region, but has not provided evidence of the attack.

Ukraine denies this and believes it is a Russian pretext to launch further Russian attacks on Ukrainian government buildings in kyiv.

kyiv has asked U.S. and European leaders for security guarantees that would lead to a NATO-style response in the event of another Russian attack. Ukraine also seeks to maintain its armed forces at 800,000 soldiers.

Europe and the United States can sign a security agreement, but Russia will not accept European troops on Ukrainian territory.

The financial loss for Ukraine was estimated at 800 billion US dollars (approximately 4.4 trillion reais). Therefore, another important question is the value of the Russian contribution in this regard.

The United States is talking about a joint investment fund with Europe and Russia has 210 billion euros (around 1.35 trillion reais) in assets on the European continent. But so far, Moscow has refused to authorize their use.

Russia also rejects Ukraine’s request for NATO membership. This may not be a very thorny issue, as it is not likely to happen at the moment.

But this point is part of the Ukrainian Constitution, so it will be difficult to reach an agreement on this point.

Ukraine’s entry into the European Union is another possible point of contention, perhaps less for Russia than for other countries, which are ahead of Ukraine in the list of candidates for membership in the bloc. Few believe this will happen very soon.

Zelensky cited opinion polls indicating that 87 percent of Ukrainians want peace. At the same time, 85% reject withdrawal from the Donbass region.

Therefore, he believes that no decision, whether on the fate of Donetsk or the 20-point plan as a whole, can be made without a popular vote and a 60-day ceasefire to prepare for the vote.

“The referendum is the way to accept or not the agreement,” declared the Ukrainian president.

This can also be a point of contention. The Kremlin says a temporary ceasefire would only prolong the conflict and lead to a resumption of hostilities. And Trump said he understood Putin’s position.

But without the referendum, Zelensky believes the agreement would not be valid, which only adds to the list of thorny issues to be resolved.