After two months of extreme exchange rate tensions due to the parliamentary elections, November brought one Significant relief in retail. He Central Bank Exchange Rate Balances (BCRA) showed that the dollarization of human people has fallen abruptly compared to October, both in traded amounts like in the Number of persons who participated in the market.
In the eleventh month of the year the Savings in retail they went down $1,597 millionwhile the Sales were in $509 million. At the same time it is Mission also withdrawn: they operated 1.1 million buyers And 692,000 sellers.
This allows the net purchase of banknotes and the transfer of currencies without specific private sector purposes. that came from marking “peaks” of $6,577 million in September and $5,434 million in October.
Dollar: from peak coverage to normalization
The contrast to October is striking. This month there was an increase in demand for coverage unusual: The Gross ticket purchases they reached $4,669 millionbarely 8% below September’s all-time high.
The Sales they added $473 millionwhat a left behind The net flow of banknotes was almost $4.2 billionwithin a Total personal sector spending exceeds $5,000 millionsaid the BCRA itself.
Although November seems like a month strong decompression Given this peak of excitement, the relevant data is that the retail market began to return to a more “normal” level compared to months before the stressful episode.
In other words, It’s not just that there are fewer people on dutyBut smaller amounts movesuggesting that the channel has left the logic of behind massive reporting and returned to the more usual parameters.
In the penultimate month of the year, the dynamics changed dramatically. The Gross Dollar Purchases by Individuals HE fell to $1,597 millionA decrease by almost 66% per monthreflecting the decompression of retail dollarization. On the supply side is the Sales were in $509 million, something about it of the previous month.
The historical comparison reinforces the reading of normalization: We have to Go back to August to find a comparable purchasing level, albeit evenly above of the current one. This month people had bought $2,422 million and sold $562 millionwith 1.5 million buyers And 840,000 sellers.
The moderation It was also clear from the turnout that they had undergone surgery in October 1.6 million buyersThey did it in November 1.1 milliona drop 31%. The Salesperson they left 784,000 to 692,000 peoplewhich meant a decline in the 12%.
At the same time, the average ticket shrunk a lot: it happened by chance $2,900 in October To $1,450 in November. That means, there were fewer people there and beyond Those still receiving dollars were much less pronounced.
Trade deficit, but relief on the financial front
The November balance leaves another relevant piece of information. The month ended with Trade deficitReflection of an economy that still faces challenges external stress and one Foreign exchange demand from imports which still matters.
However, this negative result was partially offset by a financial surplus. The key was there strong wave of tradable bond issuance and bond placementswhat channeled Foreign exchange income and helped reassemble the flow through the Financial account. This movement allows Mitigate the impact of the trade deficit and improve the general pulse of the stock market balance sheet.
In this context, the economist Federico Glustein pointed out that “What can be observed first is the significant reduction in the current account deficitwhich of almost fell $2.6 billion in October To $1,163 million in Novemberalthough it is still the case 20% higher than last year“.
He also specified that the balance of goods Was positive by just over $500 millionwhile Services showed a Deficit of $559 millionexplained by Consumption abroad and tourism.
That was another highlight Exchange financial accountwhat turned out positive by $1,656 millionleveraged by other net movements that included External revenue of more than $2.3 billion.
“The Demand for dollars dropped drastically $5,439 million $1,119 millionappeased by him Election result and true Market stabilizationalthough it is still the same compared to the previous year negative by $1.2 billionpartly for a economic recovery which marked the decline in sales due to the payment of obligations,” concluded the specialist.
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