One word sums up the climate forecast through the end of this century: heat. Human activity has released so much carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere that, in the best possible scenario, by 2100 the planet will be at least 2.6 degrees Celsius hotter than at the beginning of the industrial age. If emissions continue to grow at the current rate, the increase will reach nearly 4 degrees Celsius. It may seem like a few degrees, but it’s the average temperature of the planet, which includes the polar ice in the depths of winter. In naturally hot places, such as the tropics, the increase could multiply and render entire regions uninhabitable, scientists warned again at the end of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30).
– It is necessary to mitigate, i.e. reduce emissions, and adapt at the same time. But in some places, extreme conditions can be so catastrophic that adaptation becomes impossible, highlights climate scientist José Marengo, research director at the National Natural Disaster Monitoring and Warning Center (CEMADEN), and member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
For tropical South America, projections indicate an increase of 4°C to 6°C by 2100, if countries cannot meet their nationally determined contributions, i.e. emission reduction targets.
– It’s a truly hellish scenario. And not just because of the heat, but because of the harsh conditions. Humans will need to change their entire lifestyle. Even those who can pay will suffer. Who wants to spend their life confined in a closed, refrigerated environment? – asks the scientist.
He says COP30 had good things in it, such as the active participation of science and civil society. But this is not enough, and no concrete action has been taken to reduce emissions in Belém. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections indicate that if countries meet their targets, the Earth will be within 2°C of warmer range by 2050. To this end, it will be necessary to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and choose nature-based solutions on a large scale.
– (Increase) 1.5 degrees Celsius, we have already exceeded it and we have seen the result in heat waves and superstorms – Marengo confirms.
An increase of 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial average global temperature is more than just a target, it is the approximate limit considered safe to avoid further extreme events. It was surpassed in 2024 and everything indicates that 2025 will follow the same path.
But the effects of global warming are noticeable. On November 7, as world leaders were meeting in the capital, Pará, a hurricane devastated the city of Rio Bonito do Iguaçu in Paraná. With winds of up to 418 km/h, it is classified as the second strongest category of hurricane and has never been recorded before in Brazil.