Sectors that supported the Bolsonaro government resist Flávio’s candidacy for Planalto

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Interlocutors from these sectors, however, affirm that it is necessary to give a deadline so that the senator can test his political viability. The assessment is that, if Flávio is not able to add support in two months, the way will have to be left open for another name. Contacted, the parliamentarian made no comment.

Flávio announced his entry into the electoral race on December 5 as a choice made by his father, who, although he is in prison, is the one who continues to define the direction of his political group. The appointment of the son as successor, without prior consultation with other right-wing leaders, was not well received by the presidents of parties like União Brasil, PP and Republicans, who had already expressed their intention to unite in an opposition candidacy to the PT in 2026.

The reading among the leaders of these Centrão parties and members of the so-called “BBB” bench – Boi, Bible and Bala – is that Bolsonaro’s decision to present his son as a candidate was aimed at preventing Tarcísio from presenting himself as an alternative name to his own, while preventing him from acting politically. Sentenced to 27 years in prison by the Federal Court (STF) for attempted coup d’état and four other crimes, the former president maintains the hope of obtaining an amnesty and escaping the sentence in order to run again. Flávio, in the opinion of this group, would occupy his father’s position.

That assessment was reinforced after Flávio said last week that his candidacy had “a price,” indicating he might withdraw it in exchange for a legal pardon for Jair. However, he later changed his speech to say that entry into the conflict was “irreversible”, but his allies warned of the difficulties he will face to keep his nomination until the election campaign.

One example is the lack of support among agribusiness representatives. Names in the sector indicate that Flávio is considered a secondary figure, without coherent action in the agendas considered priorities by the group, such as rural credit, land regularization and the opening of markets.

Tarcísio is identified as someone whose services are provided in the region. When he was Bolsonaro’s Minister of Infrastructure, he was responsible, among other measures, for presenting the National Logistics Plan to the Parliamentary Agricultural Front (FPA). Additionally, as governor, he accelerated a land regularization program that allowed public land to be negotiated at a discount and satisfied the sector.

For Arnaldo Jardim (Cidadania-SP), vice-president of the FPA, the governor of São Paulo was already seen as a “natural option” for Planalto long before the senator presented himself to the electoral council:

— I think that the productive sectors will put pressure on Tarcísio to launch his candidacy. Flávio will follow Bolsonarism, without the support of other segments. Tarcísio has a career in agriculture. Flávio is a total unknown.

To counter this narrative, Flávio sought out industry businessmen and MPs to say he would follow the policies of his father’s government, which halted landless settlements, for example.

— Flávio has his father’s heritage, experience in the Senate and a good education. These are references that should be used to open doors — considers Evair de Melo (PP-ES), MP most linked to Bolsonarism.

The first electoral surveys published after the announcement of Flávio’s pre-candidacy demonstrate the right-wing electorate’s preference for other names. Even among evangelicals, a segment in which Bolsonarism fares better, it is former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro who comes out on top, according to an Ipsos/Ipec survey published last week.

While Lula comes out on top with 38% of the total electorate, his performance drops to 26% among evangelicals. In this section, the PT member is numerically behind Michelle, who concentrates 32% of voting intentions and appears as the most competitive name of the Bolsonaro family among the faithful.

In the scenario in which Flávio is tested as his father’s political heir, the senator goes from 19% overall to 25% among evangelicals, a result that places him in a technical connection with Lula, but still below Michelle’s performance, reinforcing the reading of religious leaders that it is the former first lady who maintains the greatest capacity to mobilize this audience. The survey’s margin of error, for the threshold, is plus or minus four percentage points.

Resistance to Flávio’s name is also evident within evangelical seats in Congress. Throughout the week, O GLOBO reached out to its members: seven deputies defended the candidacy, while 23 others, with reservations, criticized it. Most avoided responding publicly.

A political ally of PL party leader Sóstenes Cavalcante (RJ), Pastor Silas Malafaia of the Vitória em Cristo Assembly of God, was one of those who criticized Flávio’s pre-candidacy, saying he considered it “right-wing amateurism.” Robson Rodovalho, from Sara Nossa Terra, believes that it is still early to make a decision and does not exclude that the senator will backtrack.

— If Flávio drops out, there could be Tarcísio or Michelle, who is active in the evangelical community and, as she is a woman, has a calling. Flávio is more discreet — he says. — I think the first thing is not to rush. The environment is extremely cluttered. We will have to see what happens with Bolsonaro, if dosimetry progresses in the Senate. And let’s see if Flávio will manage to unite the parties. There are still many open definitions.

Tarcísio, although Catholic, has consolidated a growing space in the segment. He stepped up temple visits, adjusted his speaking and went viral with preaching videos, like the excerpt in which he says that “God is the God of the impossible; do what is possible, leave the impossible to me.”

For their part, parliamentarians affirm that Flávio does not support the same confrontational discourse that mobilized the police and the military in favor of his father. The most repeated argument is that the senator has a limited trajectory in the area, does not dialogue with businesses and does not reproduce the confrontational tone that marked Jair’s articulation with this electorate.

Although he is president of the Senate Security Committee, Bolsonaro’s heir played a secondary role in discussions on this sensitive subject on the left and which could yield dividends on the right. Flávio was not part of the CPI leadership on organized crime nor was he chosen as PL Antifaction rapporteur in the Senate, although he made this request to the President of the Chamber, Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP).

Tarcísio, in turn, has accumulated attributes considered essential by the segment by investing in police operations in São Paulo, defending criminal sanctions and expressing explicit support for reducing the age of criminal responsibility. In a statement last month, he supported the adoption of life imprisonment in Brazil, a measure he himself called “radical.”

— I defend certain changes (in the legislation) which are even radical. May we begin to confront crime with the toughness that crime deserves. I do not think, for example, that it is absurd to be sentenced to life in Brazil — he said during a meeting with representatives of the financial market in São Paulo on November 28.

The financial sector also did not welcome Flávio’s pre-candidacy. On the day of the announcement, the stock market fell and the dollar recorded its biggest gain of the period, a move associated with increased political uncertainty.

Aware of the resistance, the senator launched an offensive on the market, concentrated in São Paulo. On Thursday, he attended a lunch with businessmen at the UBS bank headquarters, in an attempt to lure them out of Tarcísio’s orbit. The meeting brought together around forty guests, including Flávio Rocha (Riachuelo), Richard Gerdau (Gerdau), Alexandre Ostrowiecki (Multilaser) and Mario Araripe (Casa dos Ventos), and was described by participants as a first move to “introduce the senator” to the São Paulo business world.

According to those present, Flávio said that if elected, he would repeat the line taken by former minister Paulo Guedes during the Bolsonaro administration. Nonetheless, those who attended the meeting expressed doubts about whether the senator’s commitment was truly “irreversible.”

Obstacles on the way

Agri-food – Flávio Bolsonaro is considered a secondary figure in the region, without coherent action on the agendas considered priorities by the group. Meanwhile, Tarcísio de Freitas gained support after measures that benefit the sector as governor of São Paulo, such as in the area of ​​land regularization.

Evangelical churches – The leaders of major associations avoided declaring their support for Flávio’s candidacy. Election surveys show that Michelle Bolsonaro performs better in this segment, reinforcing the opinion of some clerics that it is the former first lady who retains the greatest capacity to mobilize this audience.