In a week marked by upheavals in the political scenario, the pre-candidate for the presidency of Flávio Bolsonaro and the tensions between the Senate and the Supreme Court marked the Brazilian debate.
Politics: the choice of Flávio Bolsonaro and the split on the right
The choice of Jair Bolsonaro by his son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, as political heir for the 2026 presidential election has had major repercussions. The confirmation was made by the senator through a statement on social networks
The analysis of the journalists of the Noblat program this Friday (5) points towards a scenario of skepticism and division:
Lack of charisma: Among the children, Flávio is the one with the least charisma, who faces strong rejection and who has a “glass ceiling” due to past scandals.
Tarcisio’s dilemma: Flávio’s choice places the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, in a delicate position. Considered the preferred name of the market and the center-right, Tarcísio must be forced to seek re-election, as the Bolsonaro family prioritizes a “pure blood” name in the leadership to guarantee legal and political protection.
Advantage for Lula: Flávio’s candidacy is estimated to be the “dream scenario” for current President Lula, as polarization with a radical Bolsonaro, but with less popular appeal than his father, would facilitate the PT member’s re-election.
Economy: the negative reaction of the market
The repercussions of this announcement were immediate and negative in Faria Lima. According to analysts, the financial market, which mainly supports the candidacy of Tarcísio de Freitas, reacted badly to the prospect of a list led by Flávio Bolsonaro. The observed result was the surge in the dollar and the fall of the stock market, signaling investors’ distrust of political instability and the Bolsonarista agenda.
Behavior: Eduardo Bolsonaro at the Western Wall
While Flávio took the lead in Brazil, MP Eduardo Bolsonaro was the target of comment for his trip to the Western Wall in Israel. This attitude was interpreted by analysts as a gesture of desperation and an attempt to maintain a narrative of persecution, especially after Trump’s victory in the United States did not translate into the immediate support the clan had hoped for. The episode was ironized as a call for divine help in the face of the judicial siege in Brazil.
Political articulation: Alcolumbre x Lula
A surprising event in the political scene was Senator Davi Alcolumbre’s public praise of President Lula during an event in Amapá. Politically “broken”, Alcolumbre’s change of position generated speculation about backstage agreements (“sweet under the table”) and the release of resources or amendments, highlighting the pragmatism of relations between the Executive and the Legislative.
Judicial power: Gilmar Mendes and the shielding of the STF
Minister Gilmar Mendes was on the agenda due to his decision to restrict the legitimacy of demands for the dismissal of STF ministers, limiting them to the Attorney General’s Office.
The analysis suggests that the measure is not only legal, but constitutes a preemptive political shield against the Supreme Court in the face of the progress of investigations that affect influential parliamentarians.
Negotiation: This decision is seen as a way to force negotiations with Congress and stop the retaliatory dynamic of Bolsonaro’s parliamentarians.
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