Medium-sized retail closed November with a decline of 4.1% year-on-year at constant prices, according to the latest report Argentine Association of Medium Enterprises (CAME). The decline reinforces the negative trend brought by local trading, although the cumulative data for the year still shows a positive balance of 3.4%.
The most worrying figure comes from the Seasonally adjusted monthly comparisonwhich registered a collapse of -9.1% compared to October. This methodology eliminates seasonal effects such as year-end promotions or specific events and reflects the actual evolution of consumption without calendar distortions.
Detailing by item: Perfumeries and bazaars, most affected
The CAME survey, which measures sales development in local companies, showed a predominantly negative outlook broken down by sector:
The items that fell the most
Perfumery: -17.0% year-on-year
- It represents the largest decline of all industries examined.
- The seasonally adjusted intermonthly variation was also negative: -14.6%.
- Consumption of beauty products, cosmetics and fragrances are considered “deferrable expenses”.
- Competition from e-commerce and big chain promotions hurt sales at neighborhood stores.
Bazaar, decoration, home textiles and furniture: -9.7% year-on-year
- The seasonally adjusted monthly comparison was -10.0%.
- Despite the proximity of the holidays, demand for household items failed to pick up.
- Consumers prefer repairs to replacements.
- Christmas decorations were also affected by the decline in purchasing power.
Food and Beverages: -5.9% YoY
- Although it is the area with the greatest need, this too has declined.
- The monthly change was identical: -5.9%.
- Local businesses are losing ground to supermarkets with greater bargaining power.
- Consumption shifted to secondary brands and products with lower unit prices.
Other sectors in decline
Shoes and leather goods: -1.7% year-on-year
- Monthly decline of -12.9%.
- Consumption focused on products of immediate need.
- Buying summer clothes has been postponed.
Hardware, electrical and building materials: -3.2% year-on-year
- Monthly: -13.1%.
- The cessation of work and repairs had an immediate impact.
- The rise in the dollar made imported inputs more expensive.
Textile and clothing: -4.3% year-on-year
- MoM: -8.8%.
- Only item with a decrease in the cumulative annual figure (-0.1%).
- The spring-summer season failed to revive sales.
The only winner: pharmacies
Pharmacy: +1.8% year-on-year
- Cumulative annual variation: +6.3%.
- It is the only sector that can withstand a recession.
- Medicines and health products are an inevitable consumption.
- Bank promotions (e.g. DNI account) increased sales.
- The health context (dengue fever, seasonal diseases) kept demand stable.
Corporate perception: More pessimism in the present
The CAME survey asked how retailers assess the current situation of their companies compared to November 2024:
- 54.2% reported stability (no better or worse than a year ago),
- 37.0% pointed out a deterioration in the economic situation of his company,
- 8.8% indicated improvements compared to the previous year,
The relevant data is the percentage of traders who perceive a deterioration rose by four percentage points compared to October (when it was 33%), partially reversing the improvement in perception recorded the previous month.
This suggests that the slight recovery that some companies experienced between September and October was short-lived and that November once again hit the profitability of local companies.
Expectations for 2026: optimism despite the crisis
Despite the complicated present, there is one Separation between current diagnosis and future projection. When asked about the prospects for next year:
- 48.6% projects an improvement scenario,
- 43.7% assumes that the situation will remain the same,
- 7.7% expects a negative development,
This contrast is striking: while 37% see things getting worse in the present, only 7.7% expect things to get worse in the future. The Gap between diagnosis and expectation shows that traders are convinced of a possible reorganization of economic variables in 2026.
Factors fueling this optimism include:
- Expectation of greater exchange rate stability.
- Forecast of a gradual reduction in inflation.
- Possible recovery in the purchasing power of salaries and pensions.
- Possible normalization of consumer credit.
Investment climate: predominantly unfavorable
On the context for investing in companies:
- 60.1% considers the timing to be unfavorable for an investment
- 25.2% has no defined position
- 14.6% considers it appropriate to make capital payments
The high proportion of traders who do not see investment conditions reflects the following:
- Uncertainty about costs: The volatility of input and product prices makes planning difficult.
- Credit limitation: Interest rates and banking requirements limit access to financing.
- Compressed margins: Competition and declining sales reduce the profitability available for reinvestment.
- Be careful when operating: Faced with an uncertain situation, traders prefer to preserve their capital rather than expand.
Double consumption: necessary vs. postponeable
The CAME report identifies a key consumer behavior phenomenon in 2025: the widening gap between essential and deferrable goods.
Essential consumer goods
- Medicines and health (pharmacies).
- Staple foods (although they also declined due to the shift to supermarkets).
- Basic hygiene products.
Shiftable consumption
- Perfumery and cosmetics.
- Decoration and bazaar.
- Non-essential clothing.
- Furniture and house renovation.
This dual logic explains why Pharmacies are growing while perfumeries are collapsing: Argentine families prioritize the essentials and limit anything that can wait.
Comparison with previous years
To estimate the result for November 2025, it makes sense to compare it with the same month in previous years:
- November 2024: The SME retail sales index reached 96.7 points.
- November 2025: It was 96.7 points (according to the CAME graphic).
- Interannual variation: -4.1%.
The negative interannual data contrasts with the positive annual cumulative figures (+3.4%), suggesting that the first months of 2025 performed better than the year-end, likely driven by:
- Recovery after devaluation in December 2024.
- Bonus for June and December.
- Specific promotions for Father’s Day, Mother’s Day and other commercial dates.
What awaits you in December?
December brings conflicting factors that make it difficult to predict the end of the year:
Positive factors:
- Bonus for the second half of the year.
- Christmas and year-end promotions.
- Greater predisposition to spend money on festive dates.
- Bank discounts (DNI account, credit cards).
Negative factors:
- Exhaustion of financing limits for cards.
- Higher prices for seasonal products (nougat, cider, sweet bread).
- Strong competition from large stores and e-commerce.
- Uncertainty about the start of 2026.
Retailers expect the holidays to generate sales timely recoveryHowever, this is not enough to reverse the negative balance of the last quarter.
The structural challenge of commercial medium-sized companies
In addition to the monthly situation, medium-sized retailers face structural challenges that affect their competitiveness:
- High operating costs: Rents, services, taxes and labor put pressure on margins.
- Unequal competition: Large chains and digital platforms have economies of scale.
- Limited Funding: Local businesses do not have access to favorable credit conditions.
- Incomplete digitization: Many businesses are still not taking advantage of online or delivery channels.
- Lack of associativism: The atomization of the industry makes collective bargaining with suppliers more difficult.
To survive in this context, commercial SMEs need not only macroeconomic improvements but also Professionalization tools, accessible credit and fairer rules of the game against the large retail companies.
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