Sociometer – the survey prepared by Ikerfel for the Social Prospecting Office of the Basque Presidency – publishes good headlines Lehendakari, Imanol Pradales. Having completed a third of the Legislative Council, this gives him the best estimate in the number of seats since his arrival in Agoria Enya, 29, two more than the real result of the 2024 regional elections. What other trends do you identify? That EH Bildu was going to reach its ceiling and would lose some of its strength, that PSE-EE is one of the two partners of the executive that has been punished, and that even the People’s Party is in decline. This meeting measure is the first of four in the legislature that gives Somare’s coalition options to keep its sole seat and also gives improved attendance and results for Vox, despite having only one representative at the moment, as has been the case since 2020.
The poll, conducted between 11 and 14 November with the participation of 730 people from Álava, 1,315 from Biscay and 985 from Gipuzkoa, although the seat distribution is identical in each province (25, 25 and 25), gives a kitchen dimension estimate of 36.3% votes for the PNP, one point higher than the 2024 result. EH Bildu gives a vote of 31.7%, slightly lower From one point. Translated into seats, the PNP will add two seats, from 27 to 29, and the EH Beldo Party will retain the 27 seats it tied with the Nationalists. But if the four known surveys since the regional elections are reviewed, they constitute the largest gap between the two main forces, and indicate that there is a change in trend. In Gipuzcoa, for example, the Sovereignty coalition will give up two points while the Philippine National Party will regain them.
The PNV and PSE-EE government will retain an absolute majority. It will have 40 seats, compared to 39 seats now. It is a small change but the sociometer predicts a change in the correlation of forces. There are now 27 Nationalists and 12 Socialists, and they will go to 29 and 11. The PSE-EE even targeted 13 in one of the extradition operations after the regional elections. Technically, an alternative left majority would still be possible, with 39 seats out of 75 in parliament. The data is being collected ahead of the Civil Guard’s report on the alleged corruption surrounding former socialist leader Santos Cerdán and the preventive imprisonment of José Luis Ábalos and Koldo García.
Across constituencies, in Bizkaya, the New Patriotic Party will win approximately 40% support, compared to 28% for the second force, EH Beldo. The poll does not give seats here to Soumare and Fox, although it is estimated that they may exceed the 3% threshold to gain representation. In Gipuzkoa EH Bildu wins. A direct vote intention of 22% translates into potential support of 38.4%, while the National Party’s 20.8% support rises to 33.7%. According to this survey, the PNV will close the large gap with EH Bildu in its fiefdom, with the rest of the forces remaining far behind.
As for Alava, the poll brings Vox’s estimated number to 6.1%, with 3.2% direct intentions and no “cooking.” This is almost double what was obtained in the 2024 regional elections and will cut off the People’s Party’s potential in its largest historical hunting ground. It will remain at 13.5%, which is precisely the three points that the far right will win. The sociometer estimates that the PNV will win the territory, in contrast to the actual data from last year, when EH Bildu won by three points.
The meeting barometer indicates an abstention of around 39-40%, roughly two points higher than in 2024. The poll also asks about Podemos, which ran separately from Soumare and did not receive representation, but the left-wing party will not reach the 3% threshold in any of the three regions and cannot compete for seats.