The year 2025 is coming to an end The international soybean market is beginning to define what variables it will have to contend with in early 2026. Of course, at this time of year, what can happen to the climate in South America is the most closely monitored factor. However, there are no complicated situations in the short term, apart from the fact that some forecasts predict a drier and hotter summer than normal for some productive regions.
According to the The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that Brazil would achieve a record oilseed harvest of 175 million tonnes and a very good performance by Argentina of almost 49 million, world production would not exceed last season’s mark and would end up in second place. Under these conditions Global delivery days would be slightly below the previous cycle at 106 days, compared to 109 days in 2024/25. Although these numbers continue to maintain “comfortable” supply levels globally, it is undeniable that it is below last year, a situation that soybean stocks should have already taken into account. The productive result is of course still in the definition phase and it cannot be ruled out that the estimates will change on one side or the other and be reflected in the offers.
On the other hand, this year more than others, The market will “deserve” the weekly increase in US soy exports.. It is clear that the trade agreement reached between the US and China would tend to normalize the situation of US foreign sales. However, there are days when operators do not seem very confident that the “times” for successful completion agreed between both countries will be respected. This could impact final stocks of oilseeds in the northern country and therefore the attention of operators. Grinding also needs to be monitored. For many High demand for soybean oil for renewable diesel and biodiesel production could ultimately offset lower bean exports.
In our country, Although the reduction in export rights (DEX) is almost symbolic in terms of prices or improvements for the primary production sector, it marks a path, a turnaround and the realization that if there are other sectors that do not have a DEX, there should not be in ours either.. It is a principle, an understanding that if this policy continues in the same direction, the Argentine agricultural sector can be much more competitive, efficient and ultimately offers certain opportunities to increase production. While many farmers in the main grain producing and exporting countries are in serious economic and financial difficulties, producers in our country continue to invest.. Let’s imagine for a moment the potential we could achieve if we had no withholding tax. We just have to wait for the weather to be good for the rest of the season and make next year better than this one. This is our wish at Nóvitas. Congratulations!
The author is a partner of Nóvitas SA.
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