Spain is about to say goodbye to an “extremely hot” year. But this 2025 is no exception. This is part of a trend that every month and year points directly to human-caused climate change, which is causing an increase in average temperatures across the planet and an increase in the intensity of extreme events in all its regions.
The State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) is the body responsible for monitoring the evolution of temperatures through a network of stations spread across the country. Using this data, calculate the average annual temperature. The agency now has only three years classified as “extremely hot” in which it reached an average temperature of 15 degrees Celsius. These were the three hottest years, at least since Aemet’s historic streak began in 1961. In that order, they were 2022, 2023 and 2024. It is now “highly likely” that the current year will be tied to this qualification when it ends in two weeks, as Aemet advanced this year.
Even the last days of December will be decisive in knowing whether this 2025 will be the third or fourth hottest year, as Aemet spokesperson Rubén del Campo explained this year.
According to this organization dependent on the Ministry of Ecological Transition, the average temperature in 2025 will be around 15 degrees. This may not seem like much, but it is an average that includes nighttime and daytime temperatures for all parts of the country. Its dimension is considered better compared, for example, to the average for the period between 1991 and 2020, which is 14 degrees. That’s right, 2025 is at the peak of this reference period, as are the previous three years. The record remains held in 2022, with 15.5 degrees.
Del Campo recalled that this 2025 has been in Spain two significant waves of heat, and none of cold. And among all the months of the year, the month of June stands out, which stands out from “all climatic contexts”. It is the hottest month recorded so far and the one that differentiates it from what would be normal is higher: the temperature in June is 3.6 degrees above average.
Autumn and winter
The overall data was provided by Aemet during its autumn weather report, which covers September, October and November. According to the data presented, it presents a very hot character, with an average temperature in the Spanish peninsula slightly higher than the average for this season calculated over the reference period 1991-2020. “It was the warmest new year in the series and the octavo of the entire series, showing the trend of warmer autumns in recent decades,” says Aemet.
The last autumn in Spain had temperatures below the normal of 2010. All other autumns have been warmer than average. De Campo suggests that this is a very clear example of this trend that “the seasons are getting warmer” due to this climate change.
But, what’s more, I arrived before what was the hottest summer in Spain since 2025.
Winter coming
The agency’s experts predict that the trend will continue throughout the winter, in these months of December, winter and fever. “The most likely scenario,” says Aemet in its seasonal report, “is a temperature above the normal average throughout the country, with a probability of 60% in the peninsula and 70% in the archipelagos.” However, there is only a 10% chance that winter will be colder than normal.
Del Campo recalled that these are dates for the entire resort, which does not imply that there cannot be any period of cold or snow at any time during these three months. Today, the first days of Christmas, from December 22, temperatures are expected to be low, although the Aemet spokesperson insisted there was still “a lot of uncertainty” in this forecast.
In the case of precipitation, the uncertainty is greater: “In the southwest of the peninsula, there is a 40% probability that the winter will be drier than normal, compared to 25% that it will rain more. In the rest of the country there is no clear trend and both scenarios are equally likely.”
About The Author
