The specter of a bad commercial year for Spain is diluted slightly. August was very negative for merchandise exports, which set off the alarm, falling in double digits, and shipments picked up again in September, and especially in October. According to data released this month by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Business, exports of goods this month reached 36.433 million euros, representing a return of 3.3% for the same period in 2024.
This is the best October in the history of the sector, which weighed on the economy at a rate much higher than that of the euro zone (0.4% increase in exports) or the European Union (0.8%). And this practically guarantees a positive end to the course, which did not seem so obvious this summer: in total for the first months, exports increased by 0.8% —the best date for these closings since 2022—, with new historical highs of 324.773 million euros in sales. That said, while there has been some improvement in recent months, the trade deficit remains high, at 47.6% for what we recorded this year (in July it was 53%).
The October date increases thanks to all trade with Europe, which represents 73.8% of exports, or 2.6 points more than a year ago. This means that three out of four euros that Spanish companies get from abroad come from the rest of the continent. Exports reached records in 12 EU destinations, among relevant partners such as Germany, France, Italy or Portugal. This allowed Spain to achieve a trade surplus with the club countries last month, a gap that has not been broken since 2017, for many years. In October, it was favorable at 882 million.
EE UU continues to lose weight
The increase in Europe’s weight contrasts with the drop in trade with America (representing 9% in October, or a tenth less). Of particular interest is the evolution of shipments to the United States, which fell to 12.1% in October, to 1,363 million, and were the destination of only 3.7% of shipments by Spanish companies.
The growth is lower than the 30% recorded in August, when the 15% arances imposed by Donald Trump on products originating from the EU came into force, but the consequences are not without consequences. This year, a market is becoming less and less relevant for Spanish companies behind young people, which increased the trade deficit with this country by 38.7% between January and October. Shipments to Latin America also increased in the tenth month of the year, with a decrease of 9.2%.
Among the countries to which Spain exports at least 1 billion euros per month, the good behavior of shipments to Poland stands out (12.8% more), Portugal (8%) and to a lesser extent France (4.4%), although this country, despite the political crisis suffered in recent months, consolidates its position as the main destination of exports, with 5,367 million, or around 15% of the total. Germany continues to grow (10.4%), while order growth remains strong in the German country and amounts to 4.7%. Outside the continent, exports reached monthly highs in expanding markets such as Turkey, Egypt, Canada and Indonesia.
On the other hand, the worst results are cited by the EE UU, also with a drop in exports to Belgium (-6.3%) and Morocco (-4.1%). With the Asian giants, the relationship was disparate: favorable with China, where exports increased by 2.7% to 714 million a few months after the visit to Beijing of the President of the Spanish Government, Pedro Sánchez. And negative with India, the most populous country on the planet, where Spanish companies sent products with a land value of 183 million.
Negative balance
Imports grew at a higher rate than exports, by 4.9%, and reached 41.126 million, which is why the coverage rate (the ratio of exports to imports as a percentage) was reduced to 88.6% from 90% in October last year.
If the two-year trade balance is completed, Spain continues to have a clear deficit in its trade with the rest of the world, which takes months to be reflected in the GDP growth data, which resists thanks to domestic demand, but is penalized by the external balance. There is a difference between what is imported and what is exported in October, with negative figures of 4.693 million, about 20% more than a year ago. With some favorable signs: the energy deficit is reduced by 55% thanks to a drop in energy imports of 25.7%, in a context of appreciation of the euro against the dollar and a drop in oil and natural gas prices on the markets. This allows the trade deficit to be reduced somewhat compared to the more than 6 billion recorded in September.
Surpluses in the food, drinks and tobacco sectors (1.203 million euros), non-chemical semi-finished products (616 million euros) and the automobile industry (298 million euros) were not enough to offset the negative balance of 2.874 million euros in equipment costs – the majority being spent on workshop and telecommunications equipment -, 1.460 million euros in the consumer industry — a little in textiles —, or 1.151 million negative energy purchases — 829 million euros in gas and 382 million in oil and derivatives —.
At a time when proposals are on the table to continue to deepen the European internal market and eliminate internal administrative and bureaucratic barriers that penalize growth, Spain is showing that it can benefit from developments in this direction. The trade surplus with the European Union amounted to 18.737 million euros in cumulative amount until October (although it was 9 billion less than a year ago), while compared to third countries the trade deficit amounted to 64.536 million, or 5 billion more than in the same period of 2024.
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