The 2025/26 Argentine wheat campaign is on the way to success one of the most prolific in history. According to the latest estimates from the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR), total production could be approx 27.7 million tons, and some reports even suggest upward adjustments based on harvest results already collected in the field.
This volume would mean that original expectations would be far exceeded 20 million tons at the start of the campaign and placed himself above previous historical figures.
With the Combine harvesters are working at full speed For these days, the yields observed in the plots are significant, with key regions such as the wet pampas and the core zone showing average values above usual records, with annual increases reflecting very favorable soil moisture conditions during the critical periods of plant development.
The productive leap that rewrites the wheat campaign
The improvement in the official forecast is a response to productive behavior that exceeded even optimistic expectations. The technicians who took part in the field surveys in December emphasized that yields in many areas of the wheat kernel were above their historical highs. The combination of moisture stored in the profile and well distributed rainfall in August and Septemberand a spring without extreme weather events allowed the crop to complete its cycle in ideal conditions.
Until now, the combines had uniform plots, with grains of good hectoliter weight and exceptional health development. The surprise was great even among analysts with several years of experience, who agreed that the productive picture of 2025/26 is more like that of exceptional campaigns than an average year.
This behavior has been reinforced by the accelerated adoption of management technologies. The use of fertilization adapted to the environment, varieties with high potential and more precise control strategies allowed agronomy to accompany the favorable climatic context. The result was a harvest that significantly increased the national average, step by step.
Crucial for the dollar: Wheat exports would reach $3.5 billion
The scale of the harvest forces us to review the economic forecasts of the wheat complex. With a planned production of 27.7 million tonnes, the exportable quantity is of outstanding importance. Even taking into account the internal supply of the milling industry, Argentina will have an exceptional external balancel, implying a significant foreign currency contribution in a year in which the sector operates Agricultural exporter returns to take a leading role.
According to economic experts at the Rosario Stock Exchange, the new production calculation implies that wheat exports will grow by at least 2.5% this year 500 million dollars compared to the previous year, a total of $3.5 billion.
The tax equation also changes. Although wheat has lower export tariffs than other crops, its volume is forecast to be gigantic will bring additional revenue to the state. For a country facing the need for fiscal consolidation, Any improvement in foreign trade revenues is strategic.
At the manufacturer’s edges the scenario is more complex. Oversupply tends to put pressure on domestic pricesand this campaign is no exception. The available values showed declines in the middle of the harvest, and in many areas with high logistics costs the equation became tighter. However, good performance mitigates some of the impact and allows most approaches to achieve a positive margin. The challenge will be to make commercial decisions in a market context that combines local abundance with external pressures.
Brazil continues to lead the way in terms of demand, but new players are entering the export map
In the commercial sector Brazil remains the undisputed destination for Argentine wheat. The milling industry cannot support itself with its own production and finds an immediate, close and competitive supplier in Argentina. The abundance of local offerings will make this possible Securing export volumes to this marketthereby strengthening a structural trade flow within Mercosur.
However, the current campaign brings with it a novelty with a major geopolitical impact. Argentina has completed the first shipment of wheat to Chinaa destination that has not previously been part of the grain export radar. Although initially a smaller shipment, the commercial signal is strong and opens the possibility of building a long-term relationship with a global buyer. Risks can be reduced by diversifying towards the Chinese market and increases the competitiveness of Argentine wheat in Asia.
Other places are also showing growing interest, particularly countries seeking fodder wheat for animal feeding. The available volume and competitive prices create the conditions to attract new customers and strengthen the presence in markets where Argentine wheat still has room to grow.
The domestic market is facing a flood of supply
Within the country The campaign faces logistical and pricing challenges that impact marketing. The concentration of the harvest in a few weeks leads to queues at the port terminals, delays in unloading and significant pressure on the prices offered to the producer. Supplied exporters and factories operating at full capacity reinforced the downward trend.
Quality also has nuances. Although the majority of the crop has high parameters, some regions recorded fluctuations in protein and hectoliter weight, which affect the final price. The demands of external markets force us to separate plots and allocate part of the production for feed purposes.
An extraordinary campaign but with challenges ahead
The 2025/26 campaign will leave a deep mark on Argentine agriculture. The forecast of 27.7 million tonnes reflects an extraordinary production performance This redefines expectations and confirms the potential of wheat as a strategic crop for the country. The economic impact will be greater than expected and the commercial front is expanding to targets that until recently seemed distant.
The challenge from now on It will be about managing abundance. The producer must balance exceptional yields with prices that do not always match. The state must manage a flow of foreign exchange that arrives in a key year. And the market will have to adjust to a wheat volume that will once again make Argentina one of the most important players in world trade.
When the consolidation of the campaign is completed and the final figures are confirmed, it is likely that 2025/26 will be recorded as one of the great productive achievements of Argentine wheat. What until recently was a “very good” campaign became a historic campaign.
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