With the progress of the pre-candidacy of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) for the presidency of the Republic, part of the entourage of Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) is planning the start of a “separate flight” for the leader of São Paulo.
The reading from these close allies is that after spending almost his entire first term as the target of Centrão and Bolsonarism speculation about a possible presidential candidacy, Tarcísio could, in theory, begin to realize his political project, without necessarily being tied to the expectations of these two groups.
According to this assessment, it is expected that Tarcísio could experience a relatively peaceful re-election in 2026. In a possible second term, he would have more independence and autonomy to project a presidential candidacy in 2030.
“The plan is to continue the work in São Paulo to establish himself as an administrator and politician. With this, he completes this training cycle,” said an aide to the governor.
Visible wear
These allies also privately hope that the possible “renunciation” of the Centrão to push Tarcísio into the race for Planalto, since Flávio Bolsonaro is currently Bolsonaro’s pre-candidate, could be an opportunity for the governor to dissociate himself from the group.
Indeed, in Brasilia, there is fear that the parties in this political field will suffer, as some of their parliamentarians have already suffered, from strong attrition with the progress of investigations into parliamentary amendments, according to the report by Minister Flávio Dino, of the Supreme Federal Court (STF).
“Before Flávio’s appointment, (senator and national president of the PP) Ciro Nogueira continued to use Tarcísio as a product,” said a palace source.
Last Friday, Nogueira said in Paulo Cappelli’s column, in Metropoliseswho prefers Flávio to Tarcísio “a million times”. This statement comes at a time when the “01 son” of former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) seeks to attract centrist parties, like the PP itself, into his arc of alliances in 2026.
The party, like its leaders, suffered a setback last Friday (12/12). For example, a former advisor to federal deputy Arthur Lira (PP-AL), Mariângela Fialek, was the target of a federal police operation because she was suspected of misusing parliamentary amendments. She is currently assigned to the leadership of the PP in the Chamber of Deputies.
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“Without holding your hand”
Another element of Tarcísio’s greater independence, highlighted by allies, would be his vice president’s choice to run for office in 2026.
Unlike 2022, where he had to take advantage of the vacant position to attract a party like Gilberto Kassab’s PSD, this time the governor would have more freedom to make a personal choice, without the need to use the position as a bargaining chip to obtain support.
If Flávio’s candidacy is successful, Tarcísio has publicly stated that he will support his name. The governor, however, has no plans to engage in the campaign, according to his allies interviewed by the report.
“He shouldn’t take Flávio’s hand like he did with Ricardo Nunes,” said one interlocutor, comparing this to the role Tarcísio played in the campaign for the re-election of Mayor Ricardo Nunes (MDB) of the capital of São Paulo. At the time, the governor played a central role and served as a sort of godfather to the emedebista.
Despite this analysis, these allies of Tarcísio admit that, in the event that Flávio renounces his candidacy, the pressure for the governor of São Paulo to run for president could return with force.
“Focus on São Paulo”
Tarcísio has emphasized in interviews and speeches that his objective is to launch projects considered structuring, leaving a “legacy” to the State.
At the end of that year, he began adopting the word “impossible” to list actions from his first term that, he said, São Paulo residents no longer believed possible, such as resuming work on the northern section of the Rodoanel and “ending” Cracolândia, setting the tone for the re-election campaign.
But I always said my goal was São Paulo State and I remain focused on São Paulo State. There has been no change, despite the speculation here, a lot of speculation, but we have never presented ourselves as candidates, on the contrary, I have always said that our project is São Paulo”, said Tarcísio during an agenda last Friday (12/19).
The day before, during the event in which he presented an overview of his administration so far, the governor also spoke about his plan to stay in São Paulo for the next four years.
“Obviously we have a perspective and a plan to not stop delivering. Otherwise, why would I do the project for the new immigrant offspring? We are only doing it because we believe in long-term planning. Why would we invest in a project that would start work next year and be ready in 2030?”
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