Tarcísio says he supports Flávio, but it’s ‘too early’ to assess Bolsonaro’s choice

— We will evaluate this over time now. I think it’s early — he said, when asked about the electoral poll figures that put Flávio at a disadvantage compared to Lula (PT) and with a worse performance than other candidates, including Tarcísio.

Tarcísio finally commented on the political reality in the afternoon of this Monday 8, when announcing the transfer of funds for the health of Diadema, a city in the ABC region of São Paulo. The information that Bolsonaro chose Flávio to face Lula (PT) in 2026 was revealed last Friday.

— President Bolsonaro is a person that I respect a lot, I have always said that I would be loyal to him. This is not negotiable. Flávio will count on us. He now has a great responsibility, as he joins other big names in the opposition, such as Zema, Caiado and Ratinho Júnior, all extremely qualified — said the governor.

Tarcísio affirmed that the most important thing is the “structural project” of a country, and not the candidate, and that he considers the multiplicity of candidacies as positive. He also said a fiscal crisis was inevitable in 2027 and criticized the political and institutional “disarrangement” that he said stemmed from a “crisis of leadership.”

— Many issues will require this project, this effort and this leadership, and Flávio now intends to lead this project — said the governor. — I think that we will indeed have several projects which will converge in the second round. In terms of electoral strategy, it will be positive, because they will present a high-level debate.

Despite his re-election speech, Tarcísio was the preferred candidate among the leaders of the “Centrão” party for the vacant position and the support expressed. Without the approval of Bolsonaro, including the former minister, he should not run. Part of the political community, however, analyzes Flávio’s position as an attempt to maintain a leading role in the electoral discussions and to try to reach an amnesty agreement in Congress.

The history of controversies weighs against Bolsonaro’s son, including accusations of a “crack” in Alerj’s office that resulted in the opening of investigations, in addition to the rejection of the former president’s last name. Some of the main political organizers understand, based on current polls, that Flávio would reduce the chances of victory against Lula and would have more difficulty winning over the electorate in the center.

The analysis was generally carried out behind the scenes, so as not to disagree with Bolsonarism. Ciro Nogueira, president of the PP, one of the supporters of Tarcísio’s candidacy, was one of the few to publicly express his refusal. During a trip to Curitiba, he declared that the decision “cannot be taken only by the PL” and that governors Tarcísio and Ratinho Júnior (PSD), of Paraná, would have more possibility of bringing together the right.

— If I had to personally choose a candidate to succeed Bolsonaro, it would be Flávio, because of my proximity, but politics is not only a question of friendship. Do it through research, through feasibility, through listening to allied parties, he said.

Valdemar Costa Neto, president of the PL, however, ratified Bolsonaro’s decision, saying that from this moment on, Flávio is the party’s candidate for 2026.

From “at a price” to “irreversible”

This weekend, Flávio gave even more reason to suspect the candidacy would not be valid when he said there was “a price” for giving up the election. He suggested that it would be freedom for his father, sentenced to 27 years and 3 months in prison as the leader of the coup plot and who is currently serving his sentence at the superintendence of the federal police in Brasilia.

Less than 24 hours later, in an interview with the newspaper “Folha de S. Paulo”, Flávio changed his speech and began to assert that the candidacy was “irreversible” and that the only possibility of being replaced would be by Jair. “I also meet all the conditions, with the advantage of having the last name Bolsonaro,” he said, ruling out Tarcísio as an option: “That would be very ignorant, and ignorant is all that Tarcísio is not.”

Tarcísio remained without making a statement on Flávio’s candidacy for three days. Previously, the São Paulo governor participated in the inauguration of former state deputy Carlos Cezar (PL) to the State Audit Court (TCE) alongside Valdemar, and once again was shielded from press questions by advisors, security agents and even police officers.

Appointed by the State Legislative Assembly (Alesp), Cezar consolidated Tarcísio’s influence within the Court. Of the seven members, four were appointed during his term. The body is responsible for judging the responsibility of the state and municipalities of São Paulo, with the exception of the capital, in addition to supervising contracts and other administrative procedures.

Tarcísio, like Valdemar, quickly left at the end of the event through a side door of the auditorium to which only the authorities had access. Anyone attempting to bypass the lobby was met with a moving panel in the middle of the hallway that prevented them from reaching the elevators and was closely monitored by guards.