The governor had been warned the day before by Flavio, but he was still surprised by the change. At the end of September, when Tarcisio was with Bolsonaro for the last time, Flavio still intended to run for the Senate, and Michele was considered his vice president on a possible presidential ticket with him in 2026.
Although he was not completely satisfied with the new configuration of the scenario, the governor and his allies believe that a lot could still change by 2026.
At the moment, none of them believe that Flavio’s candidacy is real, especially since in his public statement he says that he received from his father “a mission to continue the project of our nation”, but he does not explicitly mention his candidacy for the presidency.
For those around Tarcisio, Jair Bolsonaro’s decision now to name his son is intended, first, to ensure leadership of the clan, even with his father in prison — but without handing that prominent place to Michele Bolsonaro, who has been clearly moving to consolidate her leadership on the right.
Another use of Flavio’s “candidacy” is to pressure Hugo Motta and Centrão to agree to an amnesty in the Council in exchange for an alliance of the right around another candidate supported by Bolsonaro.
Then, create a ticket with Flavio himself or with a name approved by the former president.
In any case, the only thing that is certain about Tarcisio is that he will not run for president against Bolsonaro in 2026.
Therefore, for the governor to run, it will be necessary to create a new political framework that takes into account the circumstances of the clan. This tailoring starts now, but it is very difficult to predict your chances of success now.