The year 2026 will be marked by important elections in Latin America, the United States and Israel, in a context of war and the advancement of interventionist programs.
In the United States, the midterm elections will constitute a test for Donald Trump’s second term and will be decisive for the government’s agenda. People will go to the polls in November to renew the House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 Senate seats, as well as governors and other state and local positions.
The dispute is particularly relevant because Republicans currently have a narrow majority of just three seats in the House. Historically, midterm elections tend to favor the departure of the party in power in the White House. The battle, to some extent, began this year with the attempt to redraw district maps.
This practice, known as “gerrymandering,” aims to create artificial majorities by reshaping voting districts and thereby helping to elect lawmakers who would not otherwise win. Governors of states controlled by both Democrats and Republicans have entered the conflict, which in some cases has been taken to court.
Without a majority, Trump may have difficulty governing and maintaining his foreign policy, particularly in regions like Latin America, where he is waging a military campaign that reinforces the resurgent Monroe Doctrine. On the 17th, for example, the House blocked, but narrowly, two resolutions aimed at limiting the president’s actions against Venezuela.
The result of the midterm elections therefore tends to shine on Latin America, where countries like Brazil, Colombia and Peru will also go to the polls under the influence and pressure of Washington, according to experts.
“The promotion of conservative, right-wing or far-right governments is part of a broader plan of the Trump administration,” explains political scientist Rafael Villa, professor at USP (University of São Paulo). Candidates ideologically aligned with the Republican would tend to receive political support, while opponents would be targets of pressure, he says.
“In Colombia, Trump should exert strong pressure to try to promote a change of government towards a more conservative sector,” Villa believes. President Gustavo Petro is one of the most critical regional leaders of U.S. investment in Latin America and has already been the target of sanctions by the Trump administration. The United States, in turn, accuses the Colombian government of collusion with the illicit drug trade.
Petro, although he occupies an opposite position to Trump on the ideological spectrum, shares with the American a style marked by long, controversial social media posts and public confrontations. The former guerrilla is also accused of deepening polarization in the country, a discourse that was reinforced after the death of senator and presidential candidate Miguel Uribe, the victim of an attack this year.
The first left-wing president in the history of Colombia, Petro had a turbulent mandate, marked by the change of more than 50 ministers in three years and the difficulty of approving promised reforms. Earlier this month, he declared a state of economic emergency for 30 days after Congress rejected, for the third time, an executive tax reform proposal.
Since Colombian law does not allow re-election, the main name of the left-wing coalition for the May elections is expected to be Senator Iván Cepeda. “It is very likely that there will be a replacement by a conservative government, linked to the traditional sectors of the country. This is happening both due to strong social and economic polarization and due to the Petro government’s own mistakes,” adds Villa.
According to the researcher, this trend is not limited to Colombia and extends to other governments in the region. Peru is another country facing a long crisis of political instability and social tension. With the dismissal of Dina Boluarte after three years in government, the country has its seventh president in less than a decade. Keiko Fujimori, daughter of dictator Alberto Fujimori (1938-2024), announced in October that she would try, for the fourth time, to become president.
“The hegemonic force in the country remains Fujimorism. They dominate a large part of the electorate, have a strong presence in Congress and broad support among Lima’s middle and upper classes. They are politically very organized,” Villa explains. For example, it was enough for Keiko’s political group to turn against Boluarte for the president to be overthrown.
“The main hypothesis is that Fujimorism will return to power in the next elections,” he says. Peru will go to the polls in April with a record 34 candidates registered for the presidential election.
Costa Rica, which will have presidential elections in February, presents a more stable scenario. The country is, however, facing an increase in crime, which is expected to be among the main themes of the campaign. The current president, Rodrigo Chaves Robles, cannot run for office.
A historic ally of the United States, Israel will also reach 2026 with elections scheduled for October. Voters will elect members of the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament, in a political scenario marked by the war in Gaza and institutional instability.
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, the longest-serving in the country’s history, has governed under intense internal and external pressure in recent years, particularly over his handling of the conflict. His coalition, the most right-wing ever formed in Israel, nearly collapsed after conflicts with ultra-Orthodox parties and attempts to dissolve Parliament, but survived.
After 17 non-consecutive years in power, Netanyahu has already declared his intention to run for office again. Even after Hamas agreed a ceasefire and released the hostages, surveys indicate its coalition would not have enough seats to form a new government – an impasse that also affects the opposition.
This scenario revives the risk of a repeat of the period from 2019 to 2022, when Israel held five elections in just over three years and was governed, for most of that period, by interim administrations.
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