The bad news that the DOLLAR from Brazil brings to Argentina

The collapse of the real and the Brazilian stock market is causing concern among the Argentine government and investors due to the election and stock market implications

12/08/2025 – 1:50 p.m

While today, Monday, activities on the Argentine market are suspended due to the holiday, the focus of analysts and investors – and also representatives of the economic team – is on Brazilian market after the sharp rise in the dollarlast Friday.

The collapse in Brazil was canceled after the former president Jair Bolsonaro will support his son Flavio Bolsonaro as the right-wing candidate for the next presidential election in October. This news triggered a climate of discontent in the financial market.

The stock index Bovespa fell 4.2% on Friday. He The Brazilian real also accelerated its losses, falling more than 3%and recorded the worst decline since April. It was the worst of the rest of the emerging markets.

He The Brazilian dollar closed last week at R$5.44. It is still far from the record R$ 6.20 from the beginning of this yearbut financiers fear that this scenario could occur in the middle of a positive election campaign for candidate Lula.

Political and financial implications in Brazil

Various analysts of the Brazilian market They are already talking about a possible “turnaround” in the Brazilian market that could have an impact Foreign exchange market.

A possibility that they are studying closely from Argentina, amid the stabilization of the exchange rate after the election.

The Bolsonaro effect and the market reaction

The confirmation came in the afternoon Flavio Bolsonaro He confirmed the news on the X network and stated that he had been given the task of continuing Bolsonaro’s project.

This announcement caused financiers to quickly reverse their bets on Sao Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas.

The operators had bet that a Freitas candidacy would offer the right’s best chance of defeating the incumbent president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

It is assumed that Lula could run for a fourth term. Doubts about the right-wing candidate deepened in late November after Bolsonaro served a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup.

This is viewed as such among Brazilian investors According to local media, nominating a member of the Bolsonaro clan would increase Lula’s chances of re-election.

With stock market activity in Argentina coming to a standstill due to a holiday, market participants will be closely monitoring developments in Brazil in the coming days and looking for signs of stabilization following the impact of the elections.