This Friday, the Banque de France published its economic projections for the next two years. This prediction comes at a delicate time for the country, as the deadline set for the Assembly’s approval of the 2026 budget is about to expire. The country’s economic and political stability depends on the implementation of this package. Despite the uncertainty, the forecasts are more optimistic than those calculated a few months ago. According to the organization, the country’s GDP will grow by 0.9% this year, two tenths more than what was calculated in September.
The uncertainty linked to the political crisis of recent months has had less impact than expected. Sébastien Lecornu was appointed Prime Minister on September 9, following the resignation of François Bayrou, who lost a vote of confidence in Parliament precisely because of the general rejection of the budget package with the historic cuts it proposed. He was not sure that Lecornu, in the middle of a fragmented Assembly and with everything against him, would survive and manage to settle the scores. This Friday a commission made up of deputies and senators must decide on the question.
For 2026 and 2027, the Banque de France also sees a clearer horizon. It estimates growth in the national economy of 1%, a tenth more than expected, thanks to the contribution of foreign trade (mainly sales from the aeronautical sector) and a recovery in domestic consumption and business investment. The uncertainty linked to the trade policy of Donald Trump’s government, which marked the year 2025, “will weigh less on growth, as long as the bilateral agreements concluded” between the EU and the United States are maintained.
Olivier Garnier, head of the statistics department of the Banque de France, clarified during the presentation of the report that, with regard to elements of uncertainty at the national level, these forecasts “were made on the initial draft budget presented by the Government”. It is the one that Lecornu presented in September, without the modifications made during the treatment, “such as the freezing of certain benefits, which affect household income”.
“There is a context of national uncertainty,” according to the organization, due to the budget debate, which should conclude in the coming days. France’s debt continues to grow and is already one of the highest in the euro zone. It reaches 115% of GDP. The deficit is 5.6% this year, far from the 3% set by Brussels for 2029. The Banque de France estimates that it will be reduced to 5% next year, “an insufficient figure”.
This situation could increase the risk premium, according to the agency, which would “aggravate financial vulnerability and undermine confidence” of investors in the country’s economy. It could also lead to households, as they have done so far, dipping into their pockets, as well as businesses.
“The French economy could be affected by elements at the international or national level, such as American customs tariffs, which would subtract 0.1% from GDP in 2026,” notes the organization. The impact of political uncertainty would have a cost of 0.2% over the last period of 2025 and early 2026, according to their calculations.
In its future forecasts, the Banque de France takes into account the negative impact that the electoral period will have in 2027, while the presidential elections are taking place. President Emmanuel Macron will no longer run and, in principle, his biggest rival, Marine le Pen, will not be able to either, as she is disqualified after being found guilty of corruption a few months ago. This instability could impact consumption, the engine of the economy and which has barely progressed this year, as well as business investment.
According to projections from the Banque de France, inflation will remain at 0.9% this year and will be 1.3% next year, thanks to a moderation in energy prices, and 1.8% in 2028. Employment will remain stable, with an unemployment rate of 7.8% next year which will be reduced by two tenths on average per year until 2028.
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