For many, 2025 will be the golden year of Bitcoin. The belief that Donald Trump’s trip to the White House, the first crypto-president in US history, ends an era marked by fears that the industry is not solely tied to the crypto market. Even the world of traditional finance and the most skeptical, with varying degrees of fear, are predicting greater adoption. The major analysis houses predicted the cryptocurrency to reach between $130,000 and $200,000 by the end of 2025. Nothing more. In just a week, crypto fans have started celebrating new highs to talk about crypto winter. These 12 months have therefore turned into a roller coaster for bitcoin, which ends the last part of the year stuck at $90,000, a drop of 30% compared to its record at the beginning of October.
In addition to the illusion of living a golden year, bitcoin has also lost part of its identity. His rebellious character, leaving power, immune to monetary policy and traditional financial resources, is outdated. Cryptocurrency is part of this world so despised as a nation: the financial markets, the big banks… Cuts or increases in types, advertisements for aranceles, shocks liquidity, now all this weighs on bitcoin as on other traditional assets. There is a reason: new investors such as top managers, listed companies which accumulate funds in their balance sheet or find themselves investing there. Thus, in a little over a decade, it has gone from the asset par excellence of speculators to one which depends on the confidence of large inverters.
There is a key that fixes the origin of this transformation, January 10, 2024, the day when the American supervisor, the SEC, approved the first Bitcoin ETFs and decided to list funds that follow the evolution of the price of the cryptocurrency. But the real turning point has a first and last name: Donald Trump. The Republican reached the Despacho Oval last year, marking among his priorities giving carte blanche to the industry, boosting the market, removing the obstacles that hinder it and making the EE UU the crypto capital of the planet.
He kept his promises, partly by conforming to the industry, partly by personal interests. He discovered that digital assets are a gold mine for his empire and strengthened his relationships with major players in the ecosystem, like Binance or Crypto.com, and he did business with them: in a few months he launched a digital assets platform, several listed funds, a company that accumulates cryptocurrencies… But he also gave the green light to the country’s first legislation on stable coins and further energize the debated crypto market. I say that the whole world, including Europe, will watch the EE UU every time it changes its digital asset sheet and follow the path of companies looking for ways to operate in the country.
The good visa of the Republican administration has been in the sector, accompanied by legislation that brings order in which a few months ago it was considered a rescue of Western finances, now there are more and more institutional investors betting on bitcoin, to the point that some international managers recommend devoting 2% of their portfolio to cryptocurrencies. And inverters can be done simply thanks to listed funds like BlackRock, the most successful, which represents more than 69 billion euros under management.
Bitcoin has consolidated with the arrival of these new investors, more over a long period, but it also creates new risks, according to Javier Molina, analyst at eToro. “First, the concentration of ownership in the hands of the same actors, such as Strategy, is the company that poses the most bitcoin. Because company decisions can be potential sources of volatility,” he warns. “And second, the influx of money and global liquidity. Now that the money has stopped coming, we are in a moment of dead end“, the expert added. New investors who support Bitcoin are not looking for risk, but for data clarity. Their decisions are not based on FOMO (fear of missing somethingI feared it would disappear), in trends on social networks or in speculative stories. What matters now are the signs of monetary policy, the strength of the dollar, macroeconomic data, the geopolitical panorama. You can take Bitcoin’s swings, but the less volatility the better.
A black neighborhood
In April, when Trump unleashed his fury on the world, bitcoin hit a yearly low of $74,424.95, following the lead of traditional markets. But during the summer he experienced a lull: he recovered and achieved maximum success in the following days, driven by optimism about the progress of the regulations in the EE UU and its approval. Engineering Act. Its record was set at the beginning of October, when I reached 126,251.31: it had never been worth so much and was on the way to fulfilling the predictions of the great managers. But a new comment from Trump about further advances against China once again triggered panic: bolsas and bitcoin turned red, but while in traditional markets all this came as a shock and was quickly forgotten, bitcoin could not recover. Rather, this episode triggered a structural collapse that ensues today.
Trump’s announcement activated the sell and liquidation button in a row, and more than $19 billion was lost in just a few hours. This episode was just the tip of the iceberg of widespread hartazgo and nervousness, in a market that fears the exploding AI boom and geopolitical tensions could punish the most unstable assets. In an environment of mistrust and risk aversion, many investors preferred to take advantage of a meteoric rise and take refuge in safer assets, and bitcoin is not one of them. Since then, the cryptocurrency has not raised its head: it is listed at less than $90,000, down 6% this year and 30% since its highs, compared to the S&P which has revalued by 16% since.
Historically, bitcoin has shown a correlation with US stocks, particularly technology stocks, but it has now taken a different path. “It is the active beginning to feel the adjustment and the flows withdraw more quickly than in variable income,” insists Molina. So, even if the investor mindset is the same, the S&P is trading in the high zone, while bitcoin has broken its upward trajectory and entered what appears to be a crypto fall.
Demand has frozen, liquidity has dried up, and money flows from Bitcoin ETFs are at a minimum. Over the last month, no movement has been made: the assets under management of these listed funds have remained stable at 120 billion since the end of November. “The volume of the last period is pathetic, no money is arriving,” says the analyst. “What weighs the most is him shock of the offer. Bitcoin now moves in step with professional capital, requiring less volatility but greater sensitivity to them. shocks liquidity,” he adds.
Faced with this scenario, the most optimistic speak of a technical breakdown of bitcoin; them cautious, of a crypto autumn; and the pesimists, from the antechamber of a new crypto-winter. Rubén Ayuso, manager of the A&G Criptomonedas FIL fund, coincides with the first. According to him, the uptrend ends when there is euphoria, and now what dominates is fear. Bitcoin’s correction is not cause for concern and indicates that it is a safe fall from a bull market. “Nothing is broken, the fundamentals are intact,” he insists. It is clear that Bitcoin lived under the illusion that this year would be different, but shocked by the reality and by the entry of a new type of inverter, a process that analysts hope will be structural. There is no forced landing, but there is also a trip to the moon. And the dizziness continues.
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