According to the Brazilian Steel Institute, national steel production will decline by 2.2% in 2025. The total amount will be 33.1 million tons. The decline is explained by the increase in external purchases, which reached their highest level in 15 years.
The report shows that this scenario is occurring despite the government introducing a 25% import rate at the beginning of the year. The industry maintains that this protection is limited. In practice, the effective protection is reduced to just 7.2%. This is due to current trade agreements such as the Mercosur-Egypton special customs regulations and tax incentives in some countries.
The economic impact is already visible. The sector lost at least 5,000 jobs in recent months. In addition, investments of more than 2.5 billion reais were cut, equivalent to about 450 million dollars. Several companies stopped expansion and modernization projects.
China concentrates 64% of incoming steel imports Brazil. The steel industry denounced that Chinese companies operate with high subsidies and government incentives. According to the sector, this aid allows steel to be exported at prices below production costs. In their view, this is a practice of unfair competition that distorts the market.
The forecasts are not encouraging either. The industry estimates that imports could rise by 10% in 2026 if no additional measures are taken. In this scenario, local production would fall again by 2.2% and domestic sales would fall by 1.7%. It would also increase the risk of plant closures and new layoffs.
Given this situation, the Brazilian steel industry called for more effective trade protection mechanisms. The businessmen compared the reaction of Brazil with that of other economies. They pointed that out USAThe European Union And Mexico They reacted more quickly against the advance of Chinese steel.
The association’s chairman and CEO Gerdau, André B. Gerdau Johannpeter, appeared energetic. He explained that the lack of a timely response carries concrete costs for the country. These impacts, he assured, are reflected in job losses and unrealized investments.
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