Senator Flávio Bolsonaro announced that he had been chosen by former President Jair Bolsonaro to, in his words, “continue our national project”.
A possible interpretation is that Flávio Bolsonaro will be the family’s candidate for president in 2026. It is clear that the consequences of this conjecture are (i) the maintenance of Tarcísio de Freitas in São Paulo, (ii) the strengthening of Lula, who benefits from polarization and (iii) the split to the right, given that the Centrão parties have already announced that they do not want the leadership of a Bolsonaro.
Another scenario, however, is that Flávio, in fact, has been designated as the one who will make the decision for the clan, whether it is a candidacy or not.
Considering that: Bolsonaro has restricted access to politicians and poor health, the decision to delegate coordination to Flávio reduces friction within the clan and defines a politician with the capacity to coordinate with other parties the composition that will be made in 2026.
This Sunday (07), this second scenario was consolidated with Flávio affirming that his candidacy would have a price. It’s unclear exactly what that would be, but many indications suggest that approving the amnesty would sufficiently compensate the Bolsonaro clan to the point that the former president would throw his support behind a candidate outside the family.
Minister Gleisi Hoffmann called this speech blackmail against the Congress. From the non-Lulista side, however, this may seem like a very reasonable political deal.
In fact, this pact had already been signed before.
The goal is simply to discuss the order of the factors. Tarcísio de Freitas and others, for example, have already indicated that, as a first political act after a possible election, they would grant pardon to Jair Bolsonaro.
What Flávio brings is that this transaction can be completed before 2026. The proposal has been made. It’s up to the center to decide what it wants.
Leonardo Barreto holds a doctorate in political science from UnB.
About The Author
