There is one behind every movement in the city comprehensive re-reading of the macro scenariodriven by the changes introduced by the Central Bank (BCRA) and by the way the market is starting to reinterpret the risks of 2026.
There is a quiet but continuous movement in the market that shows how investors want to position themselves for the beginning of 2026: disarm them -Sale- Positions in some bonds are being shifted to others that offer one today best return-duration ratio -Time required to withdraw the bonus- and parityeven within the same government loan.
Change in strategy following BCRA announcements
The recent BCRA announcements marked the formal beginning of a new stage of monetary and exchange rate policy.
Both the SBS weekly report and Parakeet Capital’s latest report agree that this is a problem Recalibration without adjustmentwith the aim of prioritizing the stability of the peso market and the accumulation of reserves, even at the price of giving up part of the exchange rate’s role as a nominal anchor.
The key point is the change in the rule for updating the stock exchange bands, This leaves the fixed creep rate of 1% per month to adjust for past inflation (t-2). In addition, there is an explicit foreign exchange purchasing program with daily intervention of around 5% of the market volume and without systematic sterilization, provided that monetary expansion is supported by greater demand for money.
This new framework was interpreted by the market as a long-awaited signal, especially in view of the accumulation of reserves.
However, it also opened up a more intense discussion about relative prices, spreads and legislation within the government bond curve.
Parakeet’s report offers a more skeptical look at some of the implicit risks of the new system. Although he acknowledges that adjusting bandwidths can avoid an additional delay in 2026, he warns against it does not compensate for the delay that has occurred so far and that indexing the upper limit of the band may introduce a component of greater inflationary inertia at an exchange rate that is already close to this limit.
Parakeet emphasizes that by converting the cap into an indexed moving benchmark, forex can become trapped in an autoregressive dynamic, especially in an economy where prices adjust based on past inflation. Nevertheless, the conclusion is that the authorities seem to be prioritizing this Stability of the curve in pesos and in the real sectoreven accepting a certain short-term exchange rate risk.
This point is the key to understanding Why the market is starting to differentiate more between sections of the dollar curve.
From SBS
The SBS report reinforces the idea that, at least for now, There are no obvious currency imbalances. The monetary base is around 4.6% of GDP and the M2 transaction volume barely exceeds 5.7%, which is a historically low level. With an economy that could grow by around 3.4% in 2026 according to REM, there is scope for money demand to expand without creating immediate inflationary tensions.
In this context, the risk of a short-term disruptive event is reduced, but it doesn’t disappear. What changes is the way the market values it. It’s no longer about getting out of the Argentine risk, but about optimizing the exposure.
Why some bonds remain in negative territory
Following the post-announcement rally and compression of sovereign risk, several government bonds – particularly the longest and those with foreign jurisdictions – fell by the wayside spreads -performance difference- too tight compared to their counterparts according to local legislation. SBS itself points out that the yield difference between GD30 and AL30, for example, remains above 250 basis points (2.5%), a level that invites us to consider rotations from New York law to Argentine law in the next payments.
However, in the longer parts of the curve the price increase was so strong that The additional price per playing time starts to be minimalparticularly in a world where international interest rates continue to be a source of volatility.
This is where many institutional investors start sell. Not because the base case is negative, but because The risk-reward ratio no longer justifies holding such long positions if there are more efficient alternatives.
The focus returns to the short section
The downside to this exit is the growing interest in short bonds, particularly Bonares. The Facimex report is key to understanding this dynamic. According to his calculations The spreads due to the legislation in the short area remain surprisingly higheven after the general price increase.
If you take the MEP prices, you get the difference between AL29 And GD29 around the 224 basis pointswhile in between AL30 And GD30 is nearby 201 points. For Facimex, these values are not consistent with a scenario of greater macroeconomic predictability and an existing reserve program.
Especially reading Facimex suggests positions not set in GD29 and GD30 –where distribution already seems to be compressed due to legislation – and Buy AL29 and AL30, which still provide a high difference for a scenario with greater macroeconomic predictability. The goal is not to take more risk, but to take advantage of spread convergence
Swap, maturity and parities
Beyond legislation, the city is increasingly focusing on duration and parities. Facimex recognizes the value of swap strategies within the sovereign tranche under local law. sale Bonuses like BPOB8 either AN29 to position yourself in it AL30.
And in some cases you will receive one Performance increase; In other cases, only some basic points are waived, but in return shortens the duration considerably and you enter bonds with lower parities. In a context where there are no significant differences in credit risk between Treasury and BCRA, this compromise is attractive.
Additionally, the AL30 allows for the recovery of a much larger portion of the investment under the current mandate, which is not the case with other short bonds where projected recoveries are significantly lower.
The implicit message of the market
The combination of the SBS, Parakeet and Facimex reports leaves a pretty clear message. The market begins to validate the new monetary system, but does cautious.
Parakeet warns that the current exchange rate levels in pesos are not consistent with an exchange rate that is close to the upper limit of the band. which limits the attractiveness Carry trade around 2026.
This indirectly reinforces the relative attractiveness of the Short-term dollar bondsin which the investor reduces the risk of political errors or exchange rate deviations.
It’s a defensive rotation
The city is not fleeing the Argentine risk. In contrast, both SBS and Parakeet maintain one constructive vision to national debt. In the first case, it is even assumed that the country risk could still tend to be in the range of 400-500 basis points if the economic program continues.
What is observed is an rdefensive and intelligent otation, The aim is to maximize efficiency in a scenario that, although improved, remains fragile. Instead of betting all on the long term, investors today prefer to obtain value in tranches where spreads remain unbalanced and visibility is greater.
Added to this is the expectation of the adoption of the 2026 budget and progress on structural reforms. This step is crucial for SBS to regain full access to the international market under foreign law.
Until that happens, the Preference for local legal instruments will still make sense.
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