The evolution of Bitcoin It has ceased to be a marginal phenomenon and has become an asset closely followed by large financial institutions. Companies like Fidelity analyze their behavior with their own models, supported by historical data and network metrics, to identify patterns that help interpret the current market moment.
In this context, the latest analysis shared by Jurrien Timmer, Director Global Macro at Fidelity, focuses on the cyclical structure of the Bitcoin price and how each growth phase presents different characteristics from the previous ones. The study draws on more than a decade of data, from 2010 to present.
The Wave Pattern and Cycle Maturation
The approach used by Fidelity is based on a wave development model. According to this approach, Bitcoin goes through successive cycles of expansion and correction, in which each new wave presents a lower acceleration percentagebut a longer duration over time.
According to this analysis, the market is currently in the fifth wave of growth. This cycle began after the minimum recorded at the end of 2022, when the price reached levels around $16,600, in a context marked by global monetary tightening and the outflow of capital from risk assets.
Fidelity’s reading suggests that this bullish phase has progressed steadily and is showing signs of maturity, without necessarily implying an immediate reversal. The key lies in the downward slope of growth, a common characteristic of assets moving toward wider adoption.
How previous waves behaved
Historical analysis makes it possible to compare the intensity and duration of each cycle. In previous waves, Bitcoin recorded very high price multiplications over relatively short periods of time. However, this dynamic has changed over the years.
- In previous cycles, the increases were more explosive, but also more unstable.
- In the current phase, growth is more gradual and extends over several weeks.
- Volatility is still present, but with a different structure than in the early years.
This development is interpreted by Fidelity as a sign of market maturation, linked to the increase in institutional participation and the integration of Bitcoin into regulated financial products.
The role of the macroeconomic context
Fidelity’s analysis is not limited to the price of Bitcoin in isolation. The macroeconomic environment plays a determining role in asset dynamics. In particular, expectations regarding the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve directly influence risk appetite.
The prospect of monetary policy easing has helped improve investor confidence in recent months. This change in tone favors assets like Bitcoin, which historically benefit from looser liquidity conditions.
The Federal Reserve itself, through its official communications, has recognized the importance of adjusting the pace of interest rates according to economic developments, a factor that the markets follow with particular attention.
Medium-term projections and scenarios
As part of the wave model, Fidelity raises the possibility of a future sixth phase of growth. This projection is based on linear extrapolations of previous cycles, without however setting a precise timetable for its start.
Estimates suggest that a possible new wave would experience more moderate growth than previous ones, but would develop over a longer period. This trend is part of a market evolving towards greater structural stability.
However, the analysis itself highlights that identifying in real time the end of one cycle or the start of another remains complex. External factors, such as regulatory changes, geopolitical tensions or changes in monetary policy, can alter expected trajectories.
Institutions, ETFs and Bitcoin Accumulation
One of the differentiating elements of the current cycle is the growing institutional presence. Since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, participation by large investors has increased significantly.
These vehicles facilitated access to Bitcoin for profiles who previously remained on the fringes of the crypto market. The consequence has been a progressive accumulation of assets, which influences the structure of supply and demand.
According to public data from the ETF issuers themselves and regulators, this institutional flow has provided a stronger foundation for the market, reducing the exclusive reliance on the retail investor.
An advanced cycle, but not closed
Fidelity’s results indicate that the market has passed much of its current growth phase, but still shows no conclusive signs of exhaustion. The focus is on the length of the cycle rather than the immediate magnitude of increases.
This approach contrasts with more extreme views, both bullish and bearish, and reinforces the idea that Bitcoin is moving towards a stage in which movements are increasingly explained by traditional macroeconomic and financial factors.
In this scenario, the maturation of the cycle does not necessarily imply the end of interest in Bitcoin, but rather a transformation in how the market interprets its growth and its role within the global financial system.
Fidelity itself summarizes this phase as a key moment to observe how Bitcoin is consolidating its trajectory, with an advanced cycle that leaves clear signals about its future evolution and the type of growth that investors can expect in the years to come.
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