He official dollar It will trade at $1,480 on the board of Banco Nación this Tuesday, December 30th. In the wholesale segment, the currency is trading at $1,457. As for financial dollars, cash with settlement is selling for $1,527 (+0.1%) and the MEP is at $1,484 (+0.2%). Finally, in the informal segment, blue is trading at $1,540.
For the specialists in the city of Buenos Aires, this is Dollar stability This is not only due to a calm day or lower volatility, but also to concrete decisions that reorganize the board in the short and medium term. In this context, the discussion shifted from the anecdote about the daily price to the “how” and “with what” of the balance, especially as the financial calendar becomes more demanding.
The bottom line is that the agenda is no longer limited to deflation: it is now mixed with the need for deflation Strengthen reserves and sustain a transition to a system that portrays the government as consistent with a Remonetization scheduled for 2026. This combination creates an inevitable tension: adding dollars without overheating the exchange rate or creating inflationary pressures, while maintaining the credibility of the program.
In parallel, there are signs of a reconfiguration of the official strategy: on the one hand, a move by the Treasury that the market sees as key to explaining the recent stability; on the other hand, a central bank policy package aimed at organizing rules, leaving less discretion and responding to demands for predictability, reserves and macro-consistency.
With this in mind, the question that enjoins the note is simple but sharp: How sustainable is the dollar’s calm? when the system requires reserves, when the scope for action depends on the availability of foreign currency and when, at the same time, currency dynamics require that the demand for pesos keep pace so that the process is not reflected in prices. From then on, the market looks again at the same triangle: Dollar, reserves and expectations for 2026.
The calm of the dollar with fiscal support
Out of Ecolatina pointed out that the exchange rate outlook was completed in a short week without any major developments and the official exchange rate ended at $1,452.5barely 0.2% above the previous Friday and at the highest value since the beginning of the month. In terms of dynamics, analysts pointed out that the official dollar moved several wheels around similar levels, behavior that the market associates with more active anchoring.
For EcolatinaBehind this stability, they did not rule out the possibility that the Ministry of Finance continued to conduct sales on the official market. The consulting firm’s experts said that the Treasury would have sold based on the latest data $200 million between the 17 and 18and at least others $12 million on the following Friday, a value derived from the movements of the deposit stock and the flows recorded on the basis of the available information.
In this sense, from Ecolatina detailed that Treasury’s stock of dollar deposits in the BCRA had disappeared $2,077 million (12/16) To $1,869 million (12/19). This decline is crucial as it shows the “fuel” being used to support the exchange rate at a time when the Treasury is facing a demanding payment schedule.
The data is becoming more sensitive because it is noisy EcolatinaNational debt comes due in the second week of January $4.2 billioni.e. coverage of current deposits 44% these terms. The analysts added that this coverage could increase to 60% when they entered $700 million due to the privatization of hydroelectric power plants, but the central point remains: recent monetary stability is accompanied by a use of the dollar that shrinks the cushion for meeting obligations.
Exchange rule and reserve program
Out of GMA Capital They pointed out that the central bank’s announcement about the deepening of the monetary system is also a signal for the remonetization phase planned for 2026. The broker’s specialists explained that under the new regime, the corresponding cap of the exchange rate system depends on one crucial input: The path of inflationwhich is why they proposed three scenarios based on the SEM and their own estimates.
For GMA Capitalthe message did not end with the rule: the BCRA will advance in parallel with a reserve accumulation program consistent with the evolution of money demand and the liquidity of the foreign exchange market. Its analysts pointed out that the monetary authority has made it clear that the daily execution of the plan involves the participation of the monetary union 5% of the daily volume of the foreign exchange market to maintain the remonetization process.
The brokerage firm’s experts explained that, in addition, the gradual normalization of reserve policy will continue in line with price stability and the redesign of financial intermediation. This point aims to strengthen the functioning of the system and organize monetary conditions without forcing imbalances in a market that remains very attentive to signs of consistency.
Overall e.g GMA CapitalThe package of measures was based on two demands that had already emerged: a credible program to keep the dollar off the assembly line and a plan to strengthen central coffers. In other words, an explicit search for rules to stabilize expectations, but on the condition that the program actually succeeds in raising dollars and that demand for pesos follows.
The challenge of obtaining foreign currency
The broker’s specialists warned that the reserve strengthening program represents a shift in the economic policy axis: from a strategy aimed at combating inflation to a more balanced approach aimed at strengthening macroeconomic consistency, even at the expense of a more gradual slowdown in inflation. For GMA CapitalThe point is that the accumulation of foreign currency becomes a condition of credibility and not just an operational goal.
In this context, since GMA Capital They pointed out that the system leaves specific questions unanswered. Without a clear purchasing plan, accumulation depends on the availability of dollars and the demand for pesos allowing the issuance to be absorbed without putting pressure on prices. The first warning concerns currencies: its analysts pointed out that net reserves at market value (excluding gold and SDR) are reaching a red value $7,367 million.
Adding to this fragility is loud GMA Capitalthe maturity profile: They expire in 2026 $12,633 millionassuming a rollover of international organizations with the exception of the IMF. For its specialists, the key lies in what mechanisms allow the generation of these currencies, since the effective availability determines the pace and power of the accumulation program.
Furthermore, since GMA Capital They said the ability to obtain dollars through a current account surplus appears to be limited: in 2025, seven of the 10 months reported recorded a deficit. And as for competitiveness, although the exchange rate system would guarantee a higher real exchange rate with the United States (12% weighting in the TCRM), there is no certainty regarding other partners; In particular, they highlighted the risk of a possible delay with Brazil, which accounts for a third of the TCRM, affecting imports, exports and the availability of foreign currencies.
The variable that can define the dollar: demand for pesos, seigniorage and the limit of stability
For GMA Capitalthe other important determining factor of the program is the demand for money. Its analysts said that the pesos issued to purchase foreign currencies must be absorbed by the economy so that the central bank can continue buying dollars without creating inflationary pressures. Under this system, the accumulation of reserves would be financed by monetary issues that generate revenue for the state, known as Seigniorage.
The brokerage firm’s experts explained that, unlike previous episodes, the process would not have an inflationary impact if the demand for pesos grew at the same pace as the issuance and the seigniorage was positive, coupled with greater monetization. On the other hand, if issuance exceeds money demand, adjustment would occur through prices, leading to inflationary seigniorage with the consequent risk of exchange rate tensions.
In this scenario, according to GMA CapitalThe government would have two paths ahead: deepen sterilization – with more debt to the Treasury or the BCRA itself – or slow the pace of purchases, which would delay the recomposition of reserves. They also stressed that timing is important: Even with dynamic demand for pesos, the lack of available dollars could shift the adjustment toward higher interest rates.
In parallel with this from Ecolatina They located the short-term impulse in the behavior of reserves and in market signals that accompany the dynamics of the spot. Its analysts pointed out that net reserves (according to their operational definition) were there $1.3 billion. In summary, the map that emerged in this phase brings together two levels: the “Today” on which the Treasury would have acted to maintain stability; and “2026,” where the performance of the dollar and reserves will depend on a delicate balance between the availability of foreign currencies and the absorption of pesos.
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