The electoral results of the recent tie reaffirmed what was evident in the first round on November 16. Although the official candidate Jeannette Jara obtained the first relative majority in these elections, the short distance with José Antonio Kast, of only 2.93%, as well as the flow of votes obtained by the other right-wing candidates, suggested from that moment the victory of the Republican leader. In the recent elections, Kast received 58.17%, becoming the president with the most votes in the country’s political history, winning in all regions of the country.
The comfortable victory of the right-wing candidate thwarted the projected pretensions of the current government and the generation that made possible both the formation of the Broad Front (FA) and its de facto replacement within the Communist Party (PC). Thus, Kast’s victory reaffirms the trend towards alternation which has prevailed since the end of the first administration of former President Bachelet, in early 2010, without allowing the continuity of governments in power. Several causes explain the electoral defeat of the ruling party and deserve a much more detailed analysis. For now, we could mention – in passing – the citizen evaluation of the performance of the current government. Security concerns, the migration crisis, low growth, increasing informality and persistent unemployment, as well as the inability to meet the demands of the social epidemic, are also among the most relevant structural reasons. Added to this are the problems encountered by Jeannette Jara’s own candidacy, especially before the second round.
Many have questioned the management style that a Kast government would have. Government representatives and parliamentarians from the ruling party did not fail to worry about possible attacks on social rights, or even authoritarian measures, which could possibly be implemented. However, resentments of this type are also valid when we think about the behavior that the opposition could have from next March 11.
On this date, Kast will begin his government in unfavorable conditions to be able to carry out the initiatives and proposals of his program. Expectations are broad, in terms of security, public order, but also economic growth and reduction of unemployment. According to various projections, the economic outlook will remain discouraging over the next two to three years, that is to say after the departure of a large part of the new government. Likewise, the new administration will have fewer fiscal resources than those available to the current government. These resources have already been reduced as part of the recent budget discussion.
In these circumstances, the next government is expected to demonstrate a significant dose of pragmatism. Even more so if we insist on the fact that it will be an “emergency government”, above all other pretensions. The right, as a whole, without counting the People’s Party (PDG), will not have a majority in the two chambers of the National Congress, which will force the next government to negotiate a large part of its legislative agenda. For this, the definition of priorities will be essential, leaving aside questions that may be controversial (especially linked to values).
For those who make up the current ruling party, the most important task will be to define the type of opposition they will assume from next March 11. Jara announced something as he admitted defeat to his followers. But her own career as a candidate was marked by the dissonance between her proposals and the leaders of certain parties, as well as by the attitude of those who participated in the campaign. Experience shows that simple obstructionism is counterproductive for those outside the government, compared to oppositions that manage to be proactive to the point of influencing and positioning issues on the agenda.
Opposition must therefore be assumed in strictly political terms rather than on the basis of social activism. An opposition concerned solely with promoting demonstrations with the aim of destabilization can today generate enormous rejection from the population. It is enough to recall the criticisms that took root among citizens after what happened during the social crisis, with the worsening of conflict situations in the southern macrozone, the violence in educational establishments and recent similar events recorded on university campuses.
For the new opposition, it will be essential to start with an exercise in self-criticism and reflection and a debate on the proposals, however long that takes. Self-criticism should not only cover the experience of this government, but also include previous administrations, such as those of Bachelet. Self-criticism must therefore come from the left but also from the center-left as a whole. And it will have to take into account the lack of harmony with citizen demands, the weak presence in popular sectors and the inability to establish alternative proposals to the right-wing parties. Otherwise, it will be impossible for the current ruling party, which is the opposition, to come to government in four years.
As part of this self-criticism, both the left and the center-left will have to reaffirm their unreserved commitment to democracy. This was believed to have become clear after the experience of Popular Unity (1970-973) and after the failure of the insurrectionary struggle during the dictatorial period. But during this year, the declarations of the Socialist Party (PS), particularly from its youth, led to this commitment being put into perspective. The same thing happens with sectors of the Communist Party (PC) and the Frente Amplio (FA) by relativizing and justifying the use of violence, in high schools, university establishments, the southern macrozone, or in the face of the autocratic character of certain left-wing governments existing in the region.
Within the opposition there will be different directions. Besides Tomás Vodanovic and Gabriel Boric, Jara is also an important opposition figure. The number of votes obtained by Jara in the recent elections exceeds by around 600,000 votes that obtained by Boric in December 2021. In turn, the left will have to face what could emerge within the center-left. And between them they will have to know how to manage the capacity for influence that the Popular Party can have and, most likely, the dispute for leadership in this sector between Franco Parisi and Pamela Jiles.
The beginning of the current government was marked by the attempt to distance itself from previous governments and from the generations responsible for democratic reestablishment. Former minister Giorgio Jackson spoke of the moral superiority of his generation compared to those who preceded it. Towards the end of this government, and after successive defeats, the contribution of previous generations and administrations was finally recognized. After all, this is where the real legacy and major advances in social security, opportunity and improved living conditions for a large part of the population lie. Will this legacy be one that the new opposition will be ready to defend? Or will he find himself alone with the defense of the 40-hour week and pension reform? The answer will be known from March 11.
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